Robert Go, Jakarta – Pollsters, who gained credibility after they predicted a win for the Golkar party ahead of April's parliamentary elections, are now forecasting a landslide victory for former military general Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in the presidential elections. The numbers so far are stunning.

Jakarta-based Centre for Political Studies (CPS), for instance, said last week that SBY, as Mr Bambang is popularly known, would have bagged nearly 47 per cent of votes if the election were held this week. CPS figures placed Dr Amien Rais, head of supreme legislative assembly MPR, second with about 20 per cent. Incumbent Megawati Sukarnoputri, who has led the country for the past three years, would have ended up third with around 14 per cent.

Some other surveys may disagree on which candidate will occupy second to fifth spots, and the percentages of votes they will collect. They include groups with global experience, like the International Foundation for Election Systems (IFES), or those with a strictly domestic scope, such as the Indonesian Survey Agency (LSI).

But most agree that Mr Bambang looks poised to walk away with the crown in July. And pollsters are confident that, like in April, they would be on target again on July 5.

The retired general's rise in popularity has been spectacular. In December last year, IFES gave him a rating of 5 per cent. In May this year, the figure surged to 41 per cent.

LSI, whose projections ahead of the parliamentary elections results had an average error rate of 1.65 per cent, has tracked Mr Bambang moving from 7 per cent last November to nearly 41 per cent in April. The executive director of LSI, Mr Denny J.A., told The Straits Times that results from its May polling, which was privately commissioned by a domestic television station and not made public, had the front runner increasing his lead to 49 per cent at the end of last month.

Both IFES and LSI are expected to publicise their latest survey results a few days before July 5. Mr Denny said: "The science of polling in Indonesia has improved dramatically, and polling groups' success from April presents a good evidence of this."

Mr Alan Wall of IFES said both international and domestic pollsters are applying better methodologies and therefore getting more accurate projections. The Indonesian public's greater expectations of polling exercises, and changes that have taken place in the country's media and media laws are also positive factors.

Mr Wall said: "When newspapers or television stations talk about poll results, they are now required to also talk about how the polls are done. This introduces greater accountability and cuts down the chance that poll results can be manipulated."

The public, pollsters point out, is also getting more sophisticated and is more likely to rely on surveys that are done on a face-to-face basis, rather than over the telephone, or through Web-based or cellular SMS methods.

Analysts argue that polls not only provide a snapshot of political sentiment, but may also influence the outcome of elections, even if indirectly. At least 30 per cent or more of Indonesia's 147 million eligible voters remain undecided and could make their decisions based on others' preferences. Some analysts call it the "snowball effect", while others talk about the "herd mentality".

But no matter how the phenomenon is described, there is a sense that undecided voters may flock to Mr Bambang simply because polls are showing that other Indonesians are heading that way already. Mr Denny said: "The effect may not be a direct one. It isn't that poll results are convincing people one way or another about the candidates. Rather, it may have to do with how poll results are publicised by the media, and this generates greater name recognition for some candidates, like Mr Bambang, right now."

But pollsters acknowledge that other candidates may yet eat into Mr Bambang's lead in the next couple of weeks of campaigning. Mr Sukardi Rinakit of CPS said: "The polls are in favour of [Mr Bambang] now, but things may change as we get closer to the election date itself."