Bill Guerin, Jakarta – "I see a great degree of promiscuity in Indonesian politics. Anyone can get married to anybody." That is how Dewi Fortuna Anwar, a former adviser to Indonesia's third president, B J Habibie, describes the drive by candidates in the July presidential election to form "unholy alliances of secular and religious parties".
Meanwhile, in parliamentary elections, whose final tally was announced last week, a sweeping movement for change has led to one of the most unexpected election results in the country's history. Golkar, formerly seen as corrupt and authoritarian and thought to be past its sell-by date, swept back into favor. The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), whose leader Megawati Sukarnoputri was once perceived as a beacon of reformation, was dumped en masse by voters in an election widely billed as the second free and fair election for the nation (after the first in 1999).
The Golkar party, which former strongman Suharto formed in the 1960s as his political instrument of rule, was last Wednesday declared the official winner of this year's elections. From a final count of 113.4 million votes, Golkar won 21.6 percent of the poll, with the "ruling" party, PDI-P, bringing up the rear with 18.53 percent, a drop of 15 percentage points from its victory in 1999. Golkar will get 128 seats in the 550-strong parliament and PDI-P only 109, down sharply from the 153 it won in the last election.
Under Suharto, stability and prosperity were bought at the cost of civil liberties and a dark history of human-rights abuses. This time around, the party campaigned on basic economic and social issues – jobs, education, better health care. Suharto had delivered on all these until the regional financial crisis blew away his New Order, or so it was thought.
The current Megawati administration, on the other hand, was seen to have failed to deliver on promises of reform and had alienated many Muslim groups.
Voters could be forgiven, however, for musing that Marquis de Flers Robert and Arman de Caillavet were right when perceiving that "democracy is the name we give the people whenever we need them".
There is a dawning reality afoot as the public notes that, bereft of proper policies, the interests of the political elite lie only in securing power, with the aspirations of the people coming a distant second. There is little, if any, debate on substantive issues and even less evidence of platforms or political ideologies for the long-term benefit of the nation as a whole rather than the privileged few.
Former presidential adviser Anwar says the secular and religious parties are using the vice-presidential slot to secure support in parliament rather than stand on proper policy platforms. This is not so surprising given that to secure a stable government, the next president will need a high level of support within the House of Representatives (DPR), which must approve most government policies. A split DPR could result in weak leadership and lead to continued political uncertainty with a damaging effect on the economy.
Hence the drive to enhance bargaining positions and form party coalitions prior to the presidential election on July 5, when about 148 million voters will directly choose a president and vice president in the country's first direct presidential election. If no pair gets a majority, the poll will go to a final-round runoff in September.
On Thursday the first "unholy alliance" was consecrated when President Megawati announced that she is running for another term but this time, with a new vice-presidential candidate, Hasyim Muzadi – chairman of the country's largest Islamic organization, the 40-million-strong moderate group Nahdlatul Ulama (NU).
Over the weekend, however, the organization's Council of Nine vetoed Muzadi's vice-presidential candidacy and instead backed former president Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid.
Wahid, who has wide influence in the NU, was thought to have the support of most of the NU kyais (religious teachers) in canvassing votes against Muzadi's candidacy, but scores of other NU clerics on Sunday demanded that the NU central board promptly issue an edict to those NU members who were still confused about whom to vote for.
Little wonder, as the half-blind cleric, in effect barred from the presidential race by a controversial General Elections Commission (KPU) health requirement, still plans to run for president and carry the banner of the National Awakening Party (PKB) he founded. PKB, in effect the political wing of the NU, won the fifth-biggest chunk of votes, with 10.57 percent, giving it 52 seats in the new parliament and lots of bargaining power for Wahid.
Wahid is holding most of the cards. And his engineered overthrow in July 2001 has returned to haunt many of those who brought him down.
Golkar has chosen Suharto's former military chief Wiranto to top the party's presidential ticket and hopes to fill the vice-presidential slot with Solahuddin Wahid, deputy chief of the National Human Rights Commission (KOMNAS HAM), which concluded in December 1999 that Wiranto had been responsible for the bloodbath in East Timor three months earlier. Solahuddin, deputy head of the NU, is a brother of Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid.
Though Golkar chief Akbar Tanjung said on Monday that Wahid had approved Solahuddin's vice-presidential bid with Golkar, PKB deputy chairman Mahfud M D said, "If the KPU finally disqualifies Gus Dur, only then will we endorse Solahuddin Wahid as the running mate of Wiranto."
"Whoever wants to win can't free themselves of Gus Dur," said political scientist Arbi Sanit.
National Mandate Party (PAN) chairman and Speaker of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) Amien Rais can expect support from the leadership of the country's second-largest Muslim organization, Muhammadiyah.
Though PAN is a nationalist party, a change in its statute to include a controversial reference to piety (taqwa) was seen as an indication it might be leaning toward Muslim groups. Rais, however, said last year: "If I based my political support only on Muslims, there is a foregone conclusion that I will lose."
Onetime reformist Rais, who claims to have the backing of Muhammadiyah, the country's second-largest Islamic group with some 30 million members, on Sunday announced his running mate as Siswono Yudhohusodo, who leads the Indonesian Farmers Brotherhood Union (HKTI).
Siswono, who served as a minister several times during the Suharto era, had been nominated as a presidential candidate by a grouping of several political parties, including the Islamic Unity Party (PSI), before deciding to row in with Rais "after a month of contemplation".
There are fears that progress toward a strong civil society would be thwarted should either of the two generals win power. Even the incumbent president's party has expressed concern about the rise of military figures as leading presidential candidates, saying it could pose a threat to democracy.
Yet Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono remains odds-on favorite in opinion polls. The birth of his Democratic Party was a direct result of his failure to become vice president during the Special Session of the MPR in July 2001 that toppled Gus Dur. Nominated by the Justice and Unity Party led by retired General Edi Sudrajat, a former defense minister, Yudhoyono failed to qualify for the final vote, losing out to Hamzah Haz and Akbar Tanjung.
The lesson was quickly learned by many generals: to be a national leader it is necessary to have strong support from the parties or even to be a leader in a major party.
A total of 8.45 million people voted on April 5 for the Democratic Party, giving it 7.45 percent of the total tally and 57 seats in the DPR. The party's policies are similar to the platform of the military itself: defending the independence and sovereignty of the republic based on the state Pancasila philosophy and the now-amended 1945 constitution.
Five parties – the United Development Party (PPP), Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), Crescent Star Party (PBB), Reform Star Party (PBR) and Indonesian Nahdlatul Community Party (PPNUI) – are Islamic parties. PKB and PAN, though Islamic-based, see themselves as nationalist parties
The 1999 elections highlighted the failure of Islamic parties to campaign on the key issues. Altogether, the major Islamic parties drew a third of the vote then. The focus was solely on one issue – Islam. This year they dropped religious issues from the campaigning and appealed to voters on general issues such as corruption and the economy. Ethnic and religious differences were kept under wraps. The message was one of tolerance and pluralism.
Other than PKS, however, the other major Islamic political parties did not perform as well they had hoped. PPP, the biggest Islamic-based party, won 58 seats to finish third; PAN won 52 seats, an increase from 34 in the 1999 elections; followed by PKS with 45 seats, a major increase from the seven seats it won in 1999.
Yet Islamic organizations continue to try to make the giant leap into the secular mainstream. Four of the seven agreed on Saturday to nominate common presidential and vice-presidential candidates, said Hamzah Haz, the country's current vice president and the chairman of PPP.
The three Islamic-based parties left outside of this embryo coalition are the PBR, the PBB and the PKS.
The Jakarta Stock Exchange was down all last week, hurt by political uncertainty and local security concerns, dealers said. The failure of any party to win a large majority of seats has discouraged investors.
Prospects for the economy and business have been sidelined for the time being in the wider interests of getting a grip on power, but there are social issues building up a head of steam.
US Ambassador to Jakarta Ralph Boyce warned this month, "What is ticking, I think, is that there are millions of people coming into the workforce on a net basis every year that have to find jobs, and, absent major increases in domestic and foreign investment, that's a concern for anybody that values stability."