Jakarta – With retired General Wiranto's surprise victory at Golkar's presidential convention early Wednesday, Indonesia now has two ex-military men contesting its upcoming direct presidential polls scheduled on July 5.
Wiranto faces a formidable challenge from Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, a former three-star general who was coordinating minister for political and security affairs until last month when he resigned over a huff with incumbent President Megawati Sukarnoputri, whom he accused of excluding him from public functions.
Yudhoyono's brand new Democrat Party has done remarkably well in the April 5 polls for national parliament. According to a preliminary count of nearly two-thirds of the 120 million-plus votes cast, the Democrat Party has won 7.53 per cent.
This is sufficient for the party to present Yudhoyono as their candidate for the country's first direct presidential and vice-presidential polls on July 5.
Yudhoyono, who has consistently beaten Megawati in recent opinion polls as the people's favourite presidential candidate, earlier this week chose Jusuf Kalla, a well-known businessman and high-ranking member of the Golkar Party, as his running mate.
The team is especially popular among Indonesia's business community.
"The best team would be Kalla with Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono," said Sofyan Wanandi, president of the Indonesian Employers Association (Apindo). "That would be our dream team."
Wiranto enters the presidential fray with a more blemished background, at least in the international community.
Wiranto was defence minister and Commander of the Indonesian Armed Forces (TNI) in 1999 when pro-Jakarta militia went on the warpath in East Timor, killing hundreds of Timorese and destroying public property to punish the inhabitants for voting for independence from Indonesia in a referendum held that year.
He and six other high-level Indonesian military commanders were indicted in February 2003 by the United Nations-supported Serious Crimes Unit court in now independent East Timor for committing war crimes.
East Timorese prosecutors asked that a warrant be issued for Wiranto's arrest, but it has yet to be approved. The United States government has placed Wiranto and the six other indicted generals on its "watch list" for visa applications, although this does not mean they are automatically barred from traveling to the US
"The negative perception of Wiranto by the international community will have a negative impact on Indonesia, " said Arbi Sanit, a political scientist at University of Indonesia (UI).
"It will influence the attitude of foreign investors towards the country and could even affect assistance to the country."
Ironically, Wiranto's negative image abroad may be part of his appeal domestically.
"The very issues that are most controversial for foreigners are read very differently domestically," said Jeffrey Winters, a political scientist and Indonesia expert from Northwestern University.
"For instance on East Timor...the vast majority of Indonesians were horrified that East Timor was allowed to have a referendum in the first place," said Winters.
He added that if anything, US opposition to Wiranto's candidacy was likely to prove a boon to his popularity, given the strong anti-US sentiments that abound in Indonesia nowadays.
But it remains to be seen whether Wiranto has the same kind of mass popularity that Yudhoyono has won, playing on his military credentials and strong pro-reform record.
Yudhoyono was a strong supporter of Megawati, who came to power on a pro-reformasi platform in the 1999 general election, whereas Wiranto is identified closely with the autocratic rule of former president Suharto (1966 to 1998.)
Suharto was forced to resign in 1998 in the wake of nationwide demonstrations against his military-backed, dictatorial style.
"If Wiranto is elected president, he will face strong opposition in the country from human rights groups and student activists," warned Sanit.
One thing nobody seems to fear is that either Wiranto or Yudhoyono, should they become president, would attempt to bring back the days when the Indonesian military played a strong institutional role in Indonesian politics.
"The political environment has changed," said Indria Samego, a military analyst at the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI).
"Both Wiranto and Yudhoyono are politicians. Their popularity is an acknowledgement that people with military backgrounds are capable of playing any role in society, but they will not bring the military back to power institutionally," said Samego.