Achmad Sukarsono, Jakarta – Imagine trying to run a country where your political party controls less than one tenth of the seats in parliament.

Indonesia's former chief security minister, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, will face that challenge should opinion polls prove right and he wins the country's first direct presidential election this year.

His Democrat Party won just seven percent of the April 5 parliamentary poll. That means the respected Yudhoyono would need to strike solid coalition agreements with bigger parties to get a workable majority in Indonesia's feisty parliament.

But there is no sign he is near a deal even though candidates must register in two weeks for the July 5 race.

Some say dealing with former ruling parties could hurt Yudhoyono, who since quitting President Megawati Sukarnoputri's cabinet last month has surged to favourite in the presidential race.

Many Indonesians believe he would represent a break from the past and deliver more jobs and cleaner government. However, his skyrocketing popularity only helped his party to fifth place in the parliamentary poll, still a respectable showing for a group that previously was largely unknown.

Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party Struggle (PDI-P) appears certain to lose the top spot in parliament to Golkar, the former political vehicle of autocratic president Suharto. Golkar predicts it will get around a quarter of the seats.

Short of allies

"It's hard to see who he's going to be able to link up with. If the way he's packaging himself is as a reformer, promising something different, then of course he can't align himself with PDI-P and Golkar," said William Liddle, a leading expert on Indonesia from Ohio State University.

"At the same time if he gets elected he has to bring those forces in. He cannot rule without some decent relationship with Golkar and it would help to have some support from PDI-P."

Both Golkar and PDI-P are expected to field presidential candidates on July 5, giving Yudhoyono no choice but to stitch a deal with Muslim-oriented parties.

Getting policies through parliament, the bane of previous presidents, might come at a price should he win. "He will need to pay expensive political concessions to other parties.

The degree of diversity in his cabinet will be a lot higher than Megawati's," said defence analyst Kusnanto Anggoro of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

Abdurrahman Wahid, the president before Megawati, lasted less than two years after his battles with parliament prompted legislators to sack him for incompetence in 2001. His party had won around 12 percent of the previous parliamentary poll.

Indecisive or prudent?

But while Wahid was mercurial and infuriated many, Yudhoyono, 54, is a bridge builder. Some critics say that means he takes too much time weighing strategy and won't take risks.

"There are two impressions. One is of the hesitant guy, the guy who can't make up his mind. The other side is the careful decision maker," Liddle said.

Yudhoyono's military record shows he is no gung-ho leader. The English-speaking Yudhoyono attended more training courses in Western countries while in uniform than assignments in Indonesia's separatist hot spots.

One general once labelled him an "air-conditioner general," although Yudhoyono did lead Indonesia's peacekeeping contingent to Bosnia in the mid 1990s.

But Anggoro, who has spent time discussing security policies with Yudhoyono, said he had some solid attributes. "Yudhoyono's gift is being articulate," he said. "Yes, he has never been a commander-in-chief in real conflict. But his background, experience and training will make him a president who can wield authority more than Megawati."

Yudhoyono topped his class at Indonesia's military academy in 1973. His father and father-in-law were soldiers. So, would an unflappable former general who does not have blood on his hands but then no solid political base either make a good choice for president? Indonesians may soon find out.

[Additional reporting by Dean Yates.]