Robert Go, Medan – Motorised-rickshaw driver Iskandar was one of millions who chose the black bull symbol of President Megawati Sukarnoputri's Indonesian Democratic Party – Struggle (PDI-P) in 1999.

But the 37-year-old has had a change of heart, he said, as he steered his smoke-spluttering vehicle through the traffic here in the capital of North Sumatra. "I won't make that mistake again. Once was enough. PDI-P promised us many things, but what have we seen so far? Nothing," Mr Iskandar said angrily. "Many of the poor have felt the same disappointment."

One may think a man who takes home about 20,000 rupiah (S$4) at the end of each 14-hour working day knows little about politics. But analysts and politicians agree with Mr Iskandar. They say the wong-cilik – the little people in Javanese language – who put PDI-P in power five years ago might not be there this time around.

Medan, and North Sumatra in general, stand to become key battlegrounds in April. Ms Megawati's party took 44 per cent of the vote in North Sumatra, the country's fourth most populous province and the largest outside of Java Island, in 1999.

Around 22 per cent of the 7.2 million votes went to PDI-P's biggest rival, Golkar. The Muslim-based United Development Party (PPP) of Vice-President Hamzah Haz pulled in 10 per cent for third place.

Analysts here argue that many now perceive PDI-P as having failed to fulfil its 1999 pledge to fight corruption, provide services to and protect the downtrodden, and bring about an economic turnaround.

Prof Henry Sitorus from the North Sumatra University, who is the director of the Electoral and Democratic Research Agency (LipDem), said: "PDI-P won on the back of promises of reforms and on Megawati's personal appeal in 1999. That latter factor may remain with some voters but most people don't buy the reform promises any more."

Worse yet, internal disputes between PDI-P factions in North Sumatra may have reduced the party's vote-getting potential. Mr J. Anto, director of non-governmental electoral reform group Kippas, said local PDI-P leaders have set up competing youth groups which run protection rackets.

"They operate like the mafia," he said. "Each party leader has his own youth wing, and these groups are being used to collect money from local communities both for the party's and the leaders' personal treasure chests. They often clash." Mr Anto said these added to the perception that PDI-P officials were interested mostly in enriching themselves, instead of working on behalf of the people.

A local PDI-P cadre, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told The Straits Times: "Yes, such things have happened. But we think there is still quite a strong level of support for the party, and for Ibu Megawati personally." Mr Rizal Mallarangeng, an American-trained political analyst who wrote some of Ms Megawati's speeches last year, also thinks PDI-P will be fighting an uphill battle in North Sumatra.

"The view of the people, specifically the poor, is that PDI-P has failed to spur reforms," he said. "That's the key, as the party's victory in 1999 was largely based on support from workers, farmers and other low-income groups."

The PDI-P's loss is the other parties' gain. Golkar in particular sees an opportunity to boost its influence in April.

Mr Dharwan Wijaya and Mr Leong Sudarto, its candidates for the Medan city and North Sumatra provincial parliaments respectively, said their party could see a 10-point jump to 32 per cent of the votes.

But analysts said there might still be too much distrust of the party of former strongman Suharto. After all, only six years have passed since he was forced to resign.

Instead, they believe that smaller parties, particularly those that have worked locally and shown their capacity to govern cleanly and transparently in the last five years, might benefit from PDI-P's losses.

Mr Sitorus said Christian communities, which make up about 35 per cent of the province's population and voted mostly for the PDI-P in the last elections, might opt for the Peace and Prosperity Party, a new Christian-based entry.

Nationalist Muslims and university students, particularly in urban centres, may favour the Justice and Prosperity Party (PKS), which has established a reputation for being tough on corruption.

The PKS got fewer than 45,000 votes in 1999 but Mr Sigit Pramono Asri, its only representative in the North Sumatra parliament, said: "We have higher expectations. At least two or three PKS cadres from this province should be able to go to the national parliament in Jakarta. In the province, we should go from one to seven or eight, out of the available 85 seats."

While the PDI-P made promises and sat on them, Mr Sigit, an ethnic Javanese, said the PKS delivered food aid to the poor as well as cash and material donations to formal charities. It also dealt seriously with any cadre who was found to be corrupt.

"We don't play politics. We just do what we think is right, and the people saw and many have decided we deserve more support," said Mr Sigit, 38.

The only bet members of the local political elite are willing to make is that the PDI-P has lost ground, perhaps by as much as 15 percentage points, since 1999.

The real answer to who will benefit from this may lie with people like Mr Iskandar. But getting the poor to go to the polls may be difficult.

"Some of my friends said they wouldn't bother voting as they don't think they can make a difference," said Mr Iskandar. "I'm trying to tell them that they won't make a difference if they don't make a choice."