Election fever along with the inevitable campaigning essentially began as soon as the legislation was finalized by the House of Representatives (DPR) in mid-2003.
Efforts are already underway to mobilize funding to establish local committees, and prospective candidates have been selected and proposed from the various political parties. Based on the amended Constitution, there are two very pronounced changes: The direct election of the president in two stages, and the election of a kind of regional/provincial representatives (or the "Senate") council with limited powers to represent the regions.
While the elections of the president and House legislators will involve candidates that are put forward by political parties, the "Senate" or the Regional Representatives Council (Dewan Perwakilan Daerah, DPD) will be composed of personal/individual candidates.
Public opinion polls have been undertaken by many media groups or NGO's interested in the general elections. Their results have varied wildly and their accuracy is suspect because this is new phenomenon for Indonesian society and only certain segments of Indonesians can be, or are intentionally, polled, mainly people in large cities, with home telephones, so normally just the elite and middle class. However, such limited surveys are not able to reach an accurate cross-section of the many greatly diverse demographic segments, and that is particularly important because most people in this multifarious archipelago vote based on which group they come from, depending on one – or a combination of – factors that include religion, ethnicity or regional identity.
Most domestic institutions, such as political organizations or mass-based organizations are still underdeveloped. Only the Golkar Party has a reasonably organized network nationwide. The other ones are still based on those demographic group identities.
The electronic media, especially radio and TV, will play a certain role, now that freedom of expression is legal. However, most of such media is owned by urban, upper-class groups in society, including the family and/or cronies of former president Soeharto. It should be noted, however, that their influence on people's voting behavior is not very clear, because this is also a relatively new instrument here. But radio and TV certainly have a wider reach than the print media, or so it would seem.
The new political laws are very much in favor of the existing political parties that are well-represented in the DPR. The four or five largest political parties now in the DPR are likely to maintain their dominance. Only their ranking amongst themselves may change.
For instance, based on the performance in regional elections of governors or bupati (regents), the Golkar party seems to be the best organized party and has been able to win a majority of governors and regents (48 percent of governors and 36 percent of regents are Golkar members).
On the other hand, there have been tensions and rifts within PDI-P, where the central board often clashed with the local branches on selecting the candidates for governors or regents. This has caused a major split among party members and supporters. In addition, the disappointing lack of achievement by the Cabinet, led by a PDI-P president, will also hurt the party.
The Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), which is headed by Muslim intellectuals and academics, has shown that it is a well-organized institution, although it is very much based on a strict interpretation of Islamic principles. PKS has, however, shown that it can be a responsible and peaceful group in its reactions to certain events that anger more militant Muslims – the exceptionally peaceful Iraq War marches are a good example. It is still a very small party and has only seven seats in the DPR, but it could easily double that in the next election.
Another strict Islam-based party, the Crescent Star Party (PBB) – their symbol and beliefs are akin to the conservative ex-Masyumi Party – on the other hand, is expected to lose a lot of support although it is now slightly larger than the PKS, among other things because of divisions in the party.
The new rules make it difficult for new parties to have a chance to change the political equation. The rules also severely restrict the role of individuals in the DPR. Anybody interested in becoming a legislator or a Presidential candidate has to depend on the support of political parties.
The legislative elections are as important as the presidential election because according to the new Constitution the president has to get the consent or advice from the DPR on almost every important matter including legislation, budgets, control and the appointment of every important state agency such as the commander of the Armed Forces, the National Police chief, the governor of the central bank, the Supreme Court head and all ambassadors.
Since there is not likely to be a party with an outright majority in the DPR, coalitions and alliances are necessary to get policies through. This will be an important requirement for the next president and his/her Cabinet. For this reason, the person that becomes president will hopefully be an experienced and astute politician in addition to being a capable administrator and a respected leader.
An important factor in the presidential elections is the rule that the whole country is treated as one electoral region in that every vote counts the same in the second round of the election, whether it is from Java or outside Java, the so-called full proportional system. This makes Java, which has 60 percent of the voting populace, a very important area for any presidential candidate.
Thus, the combination of the presidential and vice-presidential candidates, (name recognition), and how they represent parties' demographic/identity groups, will be critical, especially in the first round of elections, because there will be several candidates. In the second round, however, Java will be dominant, and the candidate that can get a majority in Java with over 60 percent of the votes will have a very good chance of winning.
What Indonesia needs, as a President, is someone who is experienced in government and administration, an astute and capable politician and a balanced, moderate leader.
But the situation before the presidential election is still very fluid. Attempts have been made to form alliances and coalitions to weaken Megawati's second term prospects. Some parties still have their options open in choosing their Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates, and with whom they will forge an alliance. At this juncture it is very difficult to predict the outcome.
There are two big influences on the presidential election that need to be watched are: First, name recognition and popularity of the candidate, and second, support from the most number of demographic segments via a greatly organized political machine. Both are needed, but which of those will be more decisive is still an open question, because it will be the first time that voters have experienced a direct presidential election.
But if history is any indication, both in this first round of the presidential election and in the legislative election, name recognition will be important, but more so will be the party machinery and the societal groups that support certain candidates. Adept party members and money are important requirements for the machinery and organization to perform. The groups can be religious, ethnic or region-based and are still very influential at the rural, grass-roots level.
For Java's relatively more educated voters, and in many cities outside Java, the resistance against Golkar during the Soeharto period earlier was such that Golkar could never get more than 50-60 percent in such areas, despite having exercised a great amount of pressure. The other important factors are the people's political awareness and willingness to make their own choice. It should be noted that there has been some resistance against the incumbent PDI-P. It will be important to follow the trends closely because of the fluidity of the situation in order to monitor changes before the elections are held.
Megawati, the incumbent president, has the advantage of the job, high visibility and name recognition as the daughter of former President Sukarno, and wide recognition as an opposition leader against President Soeharto. On top of all these things, she has mobilized a lot of funding for the elections.
However, Megawati's achievements as president have been disappointing: Unemployment is up and the cost of living has increased, especially for ordinary people; she is seen as being too close to the TNI; and her party, the PDI-P, is in a mess. The party is split at the Central Committee level as well as at the local and grass roots levels.
Even in Bali and East Nusa Tenggara, two bulwarks of the PDI-P, the party is split down the middle because many members have been disappointed with her handling of the Bali bombings. She promised to oppose the national education law but did nothing when the PDI-P's legislators supported it. Most probably, the PDI-P will become the second party after Golkar with the loss of at least ten percent of the seats in the legislature.
Nonetheless, Megawati will most likely be a finalist in the first round of the presidential elections and will go through to the second round. No candidate is likely to come out the winner in the first round due to the stringent requirements. In the second round, the two finalists only have to compete for the largest number of votes. In the second round, however, all the other candidates/political parties could rally against her to defeat her.
The legislative elections will be held on April 5, 2004, three months before the presidential election. The results of the legislative elections will definitely have an impact on the presidential election as the results will be announced very near the presidential election. The Golkar candidate is expected to benefit from this effect.
The other finalist in the presidential election might well be the Golkar candidate selected by the party's national convention after the legislative elections. This presupposes that the party will unite to support a credible candidate. In the primaries in October 2003, Golkar decided to let seven persons slog it out to win the party's final nomination.
Among them, Akbar Tandjung has the best credentials as an administrator as well as a politician who is able to form alliances in the legislature. In addition, he is a moderate with balanced views. His main impediment is the corruption case against him, although the money was never meant to him enrich him personally, but rather support Golkar's efforts to have Habibie reelected.
Throughout his political career, he has never been known to be corrupt. If the Supreme Court overturns his conviction, he has a real chance of becoming the final Golkar presidential candidate and winning the election. But he needs to show that he is serious about fighting corruption, and to appoint credible persons to head the law enforcement agencies, such as the chief of police, Attorney General and minister of justice.
General Wiranto has never shown credible leadership, especially during the Jakarta riots of May 1998, and during the process of Soeharto's ouster. He also has been tainted by the East Timor rampage by TNI-supported militia in the wake of the 1999 Referendum and the killing of students during the special session of the MPR in November 1998.
The international community, especially civil society groups and the media everywhere around the world, would be united against him as president, and this would have serious implications for Indonesia's foreign policy and foreign relations. He has been indicted in the Dili District Court in East Timor by the Deputy General Prosecutor for Serious Crimes, a post established by UNTAET, itself a body created by UN Security Council Resolution 1272 of October 25, 1999.
Domestically, an ex-army man is also not going to be a popular choice among NGOs and the elite, although some support from the public might be forthcoming as many people are fed up with the present uncertainty. Wiranto has reportedly received a lot of funding from the Soehartos and their cronies.
These two would appear to be the front runners out of the seven candidates selected during the Golkar primaries. And if Akbar Tandjung is acquitted by the Supreme Court, he has the best chance of becoming the Golkar presidential candidate. Another person that could win in the convention is Jusuf Kalla should Akbar not be acquitted by the Supreme Court.
Jusuf Kalla is a trustworthy businessman and was never a crony of Soeharto. He has some administrative experience as Coordinating Minister for Social Affairs in the Megawati Cabinet, although this has only been over the last two years.
He has stuck his neck out to get the Malino Accord signed to resolve the religious strife in Poso (South Sulawesi) and in the Moluccas, essentially capitalizing on the stature and respect he enjoys among people from Eastern Indonesia.
He is very low key and is considered to be too pragmatic. He also has a limited capacity to reach out to the man on the street and does not have the overwhelming support of Golkar members as he was not a party member. But he could be an important figure to replace Akbar if the latter is precluded from running.
The candidates from the other parties include: Amien Rais from PAN (National Mandate Party) and speaker of the MPR. He has some national recognition as MPR speaker and was an opposition leader against Soeharto. He has gained some credibility by reacting strongly and consistently against global terrorism and for being instrumental in ending Abdurrahman Wahid's presidency constitutionally.
He played a key role as MPR speaker in thwarting the efforts by some Muslim parties to amend the Constitution to include sharia law. However, he has a reputation of being capricious and therefore is considered rather opportunistic. In addition, some people around him are seen as lacking credibility. His party and his own organization have their limitations.
Hamzah Haz, vice president and chairman of the PPP (United Development Party) has resorted to very irresponsible rhetoric on the problem of global terrorism. His party has been split, and therefore the chances of him being elected are not high. He might be happy to get staying on as vice president.
Soesilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Coordinating Minister for Political and Security Affairs. He has founded the Democratic Party to support him. It is a new and small party. He has some name recognition as a coordinating minister, can speak well and get through to the people, but he is considered to lack resoluteness and courage as a leader.
His chances are limited as he has no strong organizational or institutional support. He might get the support of Gus Dur's PKB (National Awakening Party). He is a more realistic candidate for the PKB as Gus Dur's chances of becoming president are slim, but he has a better chance as a vice presidential candidate.
Nurcholish Madjid, a respected Muslim scholar. He has no political support and will not get very far with his self-proclaimed candidacy. No big party has taken him on as its candidate. His chances are not great.
As a concluding note, it must be said that the conduct of the elections and their results are critical to Indonesia's future as so much depends on them. Only a capable, experienced and respected leader will be able to undertake the reforms that the country needs. Short of that, Indonesia's fate will be very uncertain indeed.