Lee Kim Chew – Indonesia's Golkar party could stage a major political comeback and beat President Megawati Sukarnoputri in the presidential election this year.
And if Golkar joins forces with Ms Megawati's party to form a ruling coalition, Indonesia will have a strong government.
Dr Rizal Mallarangeng, executive director of Freedom Institute, an independent Jakarta-based think-tank, made these predictions yesterday in his presentation at a seminar organised by the Institute of South-east Asian Studies.
He said: "The people's mood is swinging. After a series of democratic innovations, the demand now is for stability and consolidation. Increasingly, people have responded to policy and government performance. Old loyalties are still kicking, but a new factor has emerged."
A recent poll conducted by Danareksa Research Institute showed that Golkar has raced ahead of Ms Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party (Struggle) (PDI-P), and it would win an election if one was held today.
Last November, another poll put Golkar ahead at 23.1 per cent, beating the PDI-P into second place at 15.3 per cent among six major parties.
In the race for the presidency, Ms Megawati is still the front-runner, but there is a dark-horse candidate in Mr Susilo Bambang Yudhyono, the Chief Security Minister, a high-profile former general whose handling of the Aceh problem and terrorism had won him public approval.
Dr Rizal said more Indonesians now believe that the country was headed in the wrong direction with Ms Megawati's weak leadership.
He said: "Some people say this democratic government is too weak. We need a strong leader like Suharto, who can make decisions and restore order, even if it reduces rights and freedoms."
In his view, the threat posed by the Islamic parties is more apparent than real. Indonesian politics had not changed much over the past five decades, he noted. The Islamic parties in 1955 secured 39 per cent of the vote. In 1999, they garnered 31 per cent, compared to 58 per cent won by the secular parties.
In 1955, all the Islamic parties wanted Syariah law. In 1999, only two or three Islamic parties opted for it. This was an indication of their weakness, he said. "In realpolitik, the Islamic parties have declined."