Hope for the best, but be prepared for the worst. That's the principle Army Chief of Staff Ryamizard Ryacudu apparently had in mind when he sent a warning signal to public at the Army's anniversary last Monday.
"The general election is the party of democracy and it is the people that have the obligation to secure the event. If the situation disturbs security and public order, the police would step in and the we the army would help the police," he said.
"If there is a deliberate attempt to divide the nation," added Ryacudu, the son-in-law of former Vice President and retired general Try Sutrisno, "the army should step in. The Army does not want this country to fall apart."
Given its nature as the agency that must deal with any worst-case scenario in anticipating social upheaval, the signal sent by Ryacudu and similar comments by his superior, Armed Forces Commander Endriartono Sutarto, are still within the bounds of normal responsibility.
But seen from other perspectives, Ryacudu's comments gave the impression that the Army commander does not feel quite sure about the neutrality of the military in the upcoming general elections.
A source close to military circles told Laksamana.Net that the main concern that prompted Ryacudu to ring the alarm bell is the potential for support from middle-ranking officers for former Armed Forces Commander Gen. Wiranto, expected to be a nominee for the presidency in next July's first round direct presidential election.
"At least 60% of the Resort Military Commanders [Korem] at the regency level can be called Wiranto men. They have been under his influence and patronage since they were still sub-district commanders with the rank of Second Lieutenant," says the source.
Resort or district military commands still present the potential to be quickly turned into a de facto political infrastructure in support of the retired generals who are standing as presidential candidates.
According to Suhato-era military doctrine, the maintenance of internal security was considered an integral part of national defense. Internal threat was perceived as far more urgent than any external threat. This military doctrine was inspired by the experience during the struggle for independence in 1945-1949, and was manipulated by Suharto and his military clique to preserve their power.
Since the success of this strategy, according to the doctrine, required that a close bond be maintained between citizen and soldier to encourage the support of the entire population and enable the military to manage all war-related resources, in practice the military used the territorial command from the province down to the village level as a de facto political infrastructure.
In practice, territorial organizations were run largely by the army, which was able to militarize civilians or force them to work with the military's scheme.
By exercising influence over decisions on matters such as population redistribution, the production of food and strategic materials, and the development of air and sea transportation, the military played a major role in directing people to support Suharto's Golkar for 32 years.
As officers with a commitment to military professionalism, Sutarto and Ryacudu are aware that a threat exists for military territorial organizations to be used by retired generals as a political infrastructure.
Ryacudu's comments stressed the need to create unity of action between the military and the police to anticipate the possibility of support from middle-ranking officers in support of retired generals including Wiranto and the Coordinating Minister for Political and Security Affairs, retired Lt. Gen Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono,
By saying that the military would step in should the police be unable to deal with disturbances during the elections, Ryacudu acknowledged the formal separation of the Armed Forces and the Police.
Since the clash between the Army's airborne unit and the police in Binjai, North Sumatra last year and clashes in Sulawesi and Kalimantan this year, a military source told Laksamana.Net that Ryacudu is concerned about the possibility of further clashes between the Army and the Police in a situation where the Army has lost many of its financial sources.
The remnants of the Suharto regime, especially the retired generals, believed to have virtually unlimited financial resources, are in a position to organize intelligence operations in cooperation with their supporters among the Resort Military Commands to create public disturbances and instigate clashes with the Police.
But as Army Chief of Staff, Ryacudu is responsible only for personnel, training, administration, and logistical support, but does not exercise direct authority over the regional commands and their networks reaching down to village level.
President Megawati Sukarnoputri also seems alert to political risk pointed to by Ryacudu. Just a day after Ryacudu's statement, Megawati told a meeting of Governors that any disturbances during the general elections would not come from the 24 contesting political parties.
All the contesting parties, she said, have an interest in creating a good image in the eyes of the public. "So, who will have the intention of instigating disturbances?" Megawati asked.
Megawati challenged those who might instigate disturbances not to be half-hearted. "Take all the power," she taunted.