With the official announcement by the General Elections Commission (KPU) that 24 political parties have been passed as eligible to contest the 2004 polls, the ideological affiliation of the parties and the potential for polarization between reformist versus pro status quo groups can be determined.
Several contesting parties have historical connections with the three old political parties, Golkar, the United Development Party (PPP) and the current ruling party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).
Three new parties are clearly related to Golkar. These are the Concern for the Nation Party (Partai Karya Peduli Bangsa - PKPB) led by former Army Chief of Staff Gen. (ret.) R Hartono, the Indonesian Justice and Unity Party (Partai Keadilan dan Persatuan Indonesia - PKPI) led by former Defense Minister and Armed Forces Commander Gen. (ret.) Edi Sudrajat, and the Pancasila Patriot Party led by Yapto Sulistio Soerjosoemarno.
Hartono and Sudrajat, having got involved in the factionalism within the military between the red and white nationalist officers versus Muslim-leaning officers during the Suharto era, with the fall of Suharto both were excluded from Golkar's political constellation following the rise to power in Golkar in October 1998 of Akbar Tanjung.
Sudrajat lost the battle against Tanjung to represent the coalition of former high-ranking military officers and secular Golkar civilian groups. Hartono, who was identified as the crony of Suharto and the family because of his connection with Siti Hardiyanti Rukmana (Tutut), the oldest daughter of Suharto, was also excluded from Golkar's new political constellation as the logical result of the coalition between Tanjung and then President B.J. Habibie, who relied more strongly on Muslim factions within Golkar.
With Golkar dominated by Tanjung and the alumni of the Muslim Student Association (KAHMI), Suharto and his Cendana connections lost their most vital political vehicle.
It came as little surprise to anyone that as soon as Hartono's party was validated by the KPU he moved to nominate Tutut as the party's presidential candidate.
Ginanjar Kartasasmita, former Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs and Golkar politician who had joined forces with Tanjung, has admitted that the nomination of Tutut will be a serious challenge for Golkar.
Analysts add that the former ruler's daughter will be more of a threat to Golkar than to President Megawati Sukarnoputri and her PDI-P.
Tanjung's Golkar and Hartono-Tutut's PKPB both have their roots in the old authoritarian regime under Suharto, making inevitable a split between supporters of the New Order.
Golkar under Tanjung represents a continuation of New Order politics but without the Suhartos, forcing people to choose between ideology with and without certain personalities.
Hartono's signal in nominating Tutut, though considered more a matter of psychological warfare than any serious bid for the presidency, will be seen by Golkar strategists as a threat to undermine Golkar's potential vote.
PKPB itself does not represent any real threat, since it has little voter recognition, but Tutut is well known for her work in Golkar election campaigns in the past. She was a deputy chairman of the party from 1993-97.
Yapto's Pancasila Patriot Party is a reincarnation of the mass organization Pancasila Youth (Pemuda Pancasila - PP), a subordinate wing of Golkar in the past. Yapto, as the son of a retired military officer, is closer to the military factions of Golkar such as the Communication Forum for Sons and Daughters of Retired Military Officers (FKPPI).
The rise of Tanjung and the HMI connection in 1998 provided no place for Yapto, who found that the FKPPI connection was steadily excluded from strategic positions at the central board level and in provincial chapters and branches.
PDI-P copycats
There are four parties that have been historically and ideologically connected with PDI-P. Though the ruling party remains solid and united under the leadership of Megawati, the copycat groups also have the potential to take votes from it.
The four are the Freedom Bull National Party (Partai Nasional Banteng Kemerdekaan - PNBK) led by Eros Djarot; the Pioneer Party (Partai Pelopor) led by Megawati's younger sister Rachmawati; the Marhaenisme Indonesia National Party led by another sister, Sukmawati; and the Indonesian Democratic Struggle Party (Partai Penegak Demokrasi Indonesia - PPDI) led Dimmy Haryanto.
PPDI represents the rebirth of the old Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) formerly led by Suryadi, Suharto's political operator, who was seen as responsible in overthrowing Megawati as the elected leader of PDI in 1996.
In theory, PNBK and the other nationalist parties linked to Sukarno's family are new political vehicles for disappointed and frustrated PDI-P cadres.
Eros Djarot is optimistic that his PNBK will be able to steal 10% of PDI-P voters considered as swing voters. He argues that in the 1999 general elections at least 20% of PDI-P's 34% of votes came from people with no special allegiance to the party.
Djarot was formerly a senior political advisor to Megawati. He was ousted by Megawati's husband Taufik Kiemas, who saw Djarot as having too much influence on his wife, at the party congress in Semarang in 2000.
Ousted from the party, he strongly criticized PDI-P for failing to address the needs of the middle class and educated groups in urban areas. This, he said, created a gap between the political elite and the masses in PDI-P that was vulnerable to exploitation and manipulation.
Sources within PDI-P and PNBK told Laksamana.Net that given the platform of PNBK in targeting urban middle class nationalists, who are basically less ideologically rigid and less emotional than the grassroots, it would be open for PNBK to craft strategic alliances with small parties such as the National Mandate Party (PAN) of Amien Rais, the Freedom Party of Adi Sasono, the United Democratic Nationhood Party of Ryaas Rasyid and the New Indonesia Alliance Party of Sjahrir. Even Muslim parties such as the Prosperous Justice Party led by Hidayat Nur Wahid are potential coalition partners for Djarot's group.
The Pioneer Party of Rachmawati and the Marhaenisme Indonesia National Party of Sukmawati both claim to represent the poor.
Both of the president's sisters, in contrast to Djarot's focus on the urban middle class, say the government has neglected the aspirations of the poor, despite Megawati's claim to represent them.
Thus, the main political agenda of both the Pioneer Party and the Marhaenisme Indonesia National Party are to win over the hearts and minds of the poor with assumption that Megawati and PDI-P have lost support in this social group.
Muslim-based parties
Of the Muslim-based parties, the only political party linked to PPP is the Reform Star Party (Partai Bintang Reformasi - PBR) led by Zainuddin MZ, a Muslim preacher with wide appeal.
In frustration with his inability to oust Hamzah Haz from the leadership of PPP, Zainuddin walked out and formed the new party.
Originally to be known as the Reform PPP, Zainuddin was forced to change the name following protests from PPP cadres and because of restrictions under the new Law on Political Parties.
Given the background of PBR cadres, mostly PPP politicians close to the Suharto regime, it is doubtful whether this new party will be able to create a political platform able to build strategic alliances with reformist parties.
Seen from the political mapping among the 24 contesting political parties, a survey conducted by Soegeng Sarjadi Syndicated (SSS) found that in the 2004 general elections the public will not be driven by ideological considerations.
This will allow nationalist and Islamic parties to reconcile their differences on the basis of short-term opportunistic interests.
PDI-P, still under the influence of moderate nationalists like deputy secretary general Pramono Anung and businessman Arifin Panigro, will be able to craft strategic alliances with Muslim-based parties which have grassroots support.
Despite the clear Muslim commitment of parties like the Crescent Star Party of Yusril Izha Mahendra, the Prosperous Justice Party of Hidayat Nur Wahid, or even the National Mandate Party of Amien Rais, sociologically they are supported by, and represent, the middle class and urban groups.
PPP, dominated by Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), and the other NU-based party, the National Awakening Party (PKB), will be at a crossroads. In the 1999 general election, the coalition between PDI-P and PKB was based on the cultural similarity between the Javanese-based nationalists and traditional Muslims.
PDI-P, meanwhile, comes to the elections at a time when the influence of the radical nationalist faction in the decision-making process has been eroded by Megawati.
Even in the legislative candidate selection process, those considered as nationalist orthodox or nationalist cadres from formal mass organizations such as alumni of Indonesian Nationalist Student Movement (GMNI), have expressed disappointment and anxiety over their inability to win support.
If this new trend in PDI-P continues, the maneuver of former President and prominent NU figure Abdurrahaman Wahid to craft psychological ties between PDI-P, PKB and PPP as a nationalist-NU coalition, looses its reasoning.
More crucially, the relationship between Wahid and Megawati has gone from bad to worse.
In such an unfavorable situation, Wahid and his NU political caucus in PKB, PPP and other parties, will be vulnerable to political coalitions based on vested interest.
PKPB's nomination of Tutut no doubt will be read by Wahid and the NU circle as a game of destabilization, given the silent political cooperation between Wahid and Golkar's Tanjung founded when PKB sought Golkar's help in having Cholil Bisri nominated as Vice speaker of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR).
In a situation where Golkar voters will be divided between Tutut and Golkar's candidate, it will be crucial for Wahid and the NU circle to build a wider coalition with Golkar.
Little wonder if Wahid played down the Tutut move, saying it was impossible that Tutut could get her father's blessing to run as a presidential candidate. "I know Pak Harto well. He is the kind of man who will never do something if he is not sure of the results," Wahid said, according to detik.com.