Gary LaMoshi, Denpasar – Along with the refusal of Iraqis to follow the United States and British "shock-awe-welcome liberators" script, a major surprise in the first week of the war has been the reaction of Indonesia. As with the Pentagon's "the outcome is not in doubt" pronouncements and the fighting in the field, there's been a decided split between the Indonesian elite and reaction on the ground.

President Megawati Sukarnoputri has led active opposition to war, including a rare public statement by Ibu President deploring the invasion as "an act of aggression, which is in contravention of international law". Her government has moved aggressively in diplomatic circles against the war, leading the charge for a United Nations Security Council meeting and lining up support from the Non-Aligned Movement, of which Megawati's father was a founding member. The government, in defiance of its image as inept bunglers on the public-relations front, has orchestrated a campaign across religious lines emphasizing that opposition to the war is a humanitarian and moral issue, not an Islamic one.

In contrast to their rulers' outrage and activism, the Indonesian rakyat has had a muted reaction the war. On the opening day of the hostilities, people waiting for visas outnumbered demonstrators at the US Consulate in Surabaya, they spent a longer time outside the heavily fortified facility, and there was no problem walking around the corner to the McDonald's for an ice cream to celebrate a successful application (as my wife and I did).

You ought to know not to stand by the window

Since then there have been demonstrations against US facilities, including tomatoes pelting American Express Bank branches and the Surabaya consulate, temporary shutdowns at McDonald's and KFC franchises, and calls for boycotts of US goods. These demonstrations pale in comparison with Indonesian reaction to the US-led attack on Afghanistan in 2001, and even to the protests against price hikes in January calling for Megawati step down. The mildness of the protests has even led officials to call for the United States, Australia and the United Kingdom to rescind their latest travel alerts for Indonesia.

Indonesians offer several explanations for the subdued public response to the attack on Iraq. First, they say, remember that the strike against Afghanistan came at an emotional time for Indonesia. President Megawati had just taken office four months earlier, amid hopes that real reform would finally go forward. The September 11, 2001, attacks on the US also served to ratchet up passions around the world, and Megawati's visit to the White House later that month put her and Indonesia in the hot spotlight on the issue.

But that explanation is not satisfactory. The fire, figuratively and literally in burning pictures and effigies of Megawati, shown in the demonstrations against price hikes or the recent assault on Tempo journalists show that Indonesians still have plenty of passion, whether genuine or for hire. So far little of that passion has been deployed to protest the war in Iraq.

The sound of gunfire off in the distance, I'm getting used to it now

Another theory from Indonesians is that they've seen this movie before. The US-led attack on Afghanistan established a precedent, the thinking goes, so this war is nothing new. Moreover, Indonesians saw that their mass opposition to the war was futile, and that the conflict's outcome was inconsequential to their own interests. That argument doesn't make much sense. Those condemning the attack on Afghanistan decried US imperialism and anti-Islamic prejudice. The Indonesian and US governments tried the same line about Afghanistan as a humanitarian issue, not an Islamic one, 18 months ago, and it didn't quell Muslim demonstrators. The attack on Iraq is evidence those demonstrators were right.

This time, the US has mounted an attack without immediate provocation against another Islamic country, without the fig leaf of UN endorsement that the Afghan incursion had, and has talked openly, if not yet sensibly, about occupying the country and installing a government to its liking. The results of the US intervention in Afghanistan, renewed warlordism and no discernible progress toward democracy or massive rebuilding promised when the action began, bolster the arguments that the US is more interested in warmongering than nation-building. So why aren't these activists who said so out there crowing?

I ain't got time for that now

Another reason cited for the lack of interest in protests is that people in Indonesia are significantly worse off than they were 18 months ago. That observation is coupled with an assumption of a growing understanding, brought about by the Bali bombings and Megawati's stealth PR machine, about the impact of bad publicity on the Indonesian economy, particularly in the area of desperately needed foreign investment.

In their struggle to scrape together a living, according this line, the masses haven't got time for protesting a war taking place 8,000 kilometers away, that, based on previous evidence, won't impact them significantly, and they're not about the bite the hand of US and Western investors that could potentially feed recovery.

The man or woman in the jalan may be measurably worse off now than in October 2001 in post-bomb Bali, where tourists remain as scarce as a real Rolex at the watch shops, but the overall economic numbers don't support that theory. The rupiah is holding strong, and growth came in around 3.5 percent last year, with inflation nearly on target at a tad over 10 percent.

Recovery remains a long way off, and the estimated 40 million unemployed have no more hope and less of any cushion than they had 18 months ago. That army of unemployed also provides a ready rent-a-mob brigade for Rp15,000 and a nasi bunkus (rice to go).

But, one Muslim political-science graduate asserted over coffee, maybe the renters don't have the money to pay them anymore. That brings up the question of who was doing the renting in October 2001. As is often the case with mysterious situations in Indonesia, such as the attacks on Freeport McMoran mine personnel in Papua six months ago, look to the dark side.

This ain't no party, this ain't disco, this ain't no foolin' aroun'

For the most part, radical Islamic groups were behind Indonesia's demonstrations against the war in Afghanistan. Groups such as Defenders of Islam (FPI by its Indonesian acronym) and Laksar Jihad were operating openly and violently in October 2001. In addition to street protests, FPI specialized in raiding nightspots in Jakarta and threatens to "sweep foreigners" out of Indonesia. Laksar Jihad recruited and paid Muslims to fight Christians in the Malukus and Central Sulawesi.

A year later came the Bali bombings, which weren't linked to either of those groups but other Muslim extremists. Police have theorized that Jemaah Islamiyah was behind them, and alleged JI spiritual leader Abu Bakar Ba'asyir, an outspoken anti-Western agitator, remains in police custody. The Bali bombings ended police tolerance of these groups, along with public backing. The Bali bombing investigation has energized the National Police, finalizing their post-Suharto divorce from the military and elevating its status. While the institution still has miles to go for credibility, figures such as police chief Da'i Bachtiar and chief investigator I Made Mangku Pastika have established some integrity. It may be that police have actually made progress rooting out terrorism in the country after four years of widespread communal and random violence.

But more important, the radical groups' active and retired military backers have withdrawn their patronage. Within days of the Bali bombing, Laksar Jihad announced it was disbanding, and navy ships suddenly appeared in Ambon to carry its warriors home. The Islamic fundamentalist's dark-side supporters may have feared implication in the Bali tragedy, or they may have read the public outrage.

More likely, they assessed the damage their support for radicals groups wrought. These dark-side forces represent business interests, including the military's own, that the Bali bombing severely damaged. They learned a lesson, one that former president Suharto understood instinctively until his political dotage: inflaming religious passions can result in an inferno that burns you.

Moreover, the US war on terrorism has directly benefited the Indonesian military. The Bush administration has taken the first steps toward reviving the cozy and lucrative relationship between the Indonesian brass and Uncle Sam. More than the Indonesian public, it's the military and its business cronies that now understand the value of not upsetting the US government or investors.

Over that same period, Megawati's government has proved itself a compliant partner for the military as opposed to her predecessor Abdurrahman Wahid, who sought real reform. So the dark forces no longer want to feed political ferment. Instead they want to preserve and protect the current illusion of political stability.

Add it all up, and you see the primary backers of the protests against the war in Afghanistan have no interest in stoking anti-US sentiment for this round of the war on terrorism. If you believe lightning can't strike twice, Bali may be the safest place on Earth to wait out this war.