Indonesia's top political parties – all of which are regarded as corrupt – are busy contemplating possible coalitions ahead of next year's general election, keenly aware that no party will win an outright majority.
President Megawati Sukarnoputri's incumbent coalition government already contains a broad mix of the country's various political forces, including nationalist parties, Islamic parties and the military.
The political bodies represented in the government are: Megawati's nationalist Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P); Vice President Hamzah Haz's Islam-based United Development Party (PPP); ex-president Suharto's former political vehicle Golkar Party; Justice and Human Rights Minister Yusril Izha Mahendra's Islam-based Crescent Star Party (PBB); People's Consultative Assembly speaker Amien Rais' National Mandate Party (PAN); Defense Minister Matori Abdul Djalil's splinter faction of the National Awakening Party (PKB); and of course the military, which has four cabinet portfolios.
When Megawati came to power in July 2001, there were concerns that political differences would render the government ineffective and lead to the break-up of the seven-member coalition, but this has not been the case.
It has been a slightly different story in parliament though, with a few disgruntled and disillusioned legislators resigning to form new parties. In January 2003, some small left-wing and nationalist parties joined forces with various social groups to form the so-called National Coalition.
Among the members of the National Coalition are: the People's Democratic Party (PRD); the National Bung Karno Party (PNBK); the Social Democratic Labor Party (PSDB); the People's Struggle Party (PPR); the Indonesian National Front for Labor Struggle (FNPBI); and the Indonesian Workers Prosperity Union (SBSI).
It seems unlikely this small coalition will be able to put much of a dent in the power of the incumbent political elite, despite widespread public disaffection with the status quo.
If any of the major parties try to go it alone, they could well find themselves in the political wilderness next year, assuming the other parties were to form a strong alliance.
As has long been the case in Indonesian politics, personalities carry more weight than policies, so the top parties may well manage to continue sacrificing certain principles – such being as anti-corruption or pro-Islamic law – for the sake of staying together to maintain their grip on power.
Swapping partners?
Future coalitions are likely to be based on partnerships between presidential and vice-presidential candidates from different parties.
PDI-P is considering extending its coalition with certain Muslim parties and Golkar, but is yet to decide on a running mate for Megawati. The party on Thursday ended a three-day leadership without any announcement on who will be its vice presidential candidate.
Earlier reports said PDI-P had been considering four names: Nahdlatul Ulama Muslim organization chairman Hasyim Muzadi (linked to PKB), Vice President Hamzah Haz (PPP), Coordinating Minister for Political and Security Affairs Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (military), and Coordinating Minister for People's Welfare Jusuf Kalla (Golkar).
Chairman of the Golkar faction in the House of Representatives, Marzuki Achmad, on Thursday said his party was open to a coalition with PDI-P. He said a permanent coalition between the two parties would guarantee strong parliamentary support for the incumbent government.
"A coalition between PDIP and Golkar is an objective alternative with a strong foundation to carry out the government's tasks smoothly," he was quoted as saying by state news agency Antara.
PAN deputy chairman A.M. Fatwa said Thursday his party has decided to nominate its leader Amien Rais for the presidency. "However, our party is still searching the field for the right figure for vice president... We are still weighing the right figure to be paired with Amien Rais," he said.
Educational ploy
Suharto-era finance minister and business crony Fuad Bawazier, who these days is a member of PAN, on Thursday proposed a list of presidential criteria that would, if accepted, effectively prevent Megawati and former presidents Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid and Suharto from vying for re-election.
Bawazier said future presidential and vice presidential candidates should have a university level education; be physically capable; and not be embroiled in any legal cases.
Megawati doesn't have a university degree. Neither does former president Suharto, who these days is said to be brain-damaged, presumably to avoid trial for corruption. Gus Dur, who was educated in Indonesia, Egypt, Iraq and Canada, is clinically blind.
Under Bawazier's criteria, Vice President Hamzah Haz would still be in the running, as he was smart enough to buy his degree. Not surprisingly, PAN leader Amien Rais, who was educated in Yogyakarta and Chicago, would also be eligible.
Bawazier said the multi-dimensional problems facing Indonesia are so complex that future national leaders must have strong mental capabilities. He pointed out that almost all professional positions require a university-level education.
PBB on Thursday rejected Bawazier's call to include "university graduate" as one of the criteria for presidential and vice presidential candidates.
"As the president will be elected by direct popular votes, the nomination of presidential and vice presidential candidates should be given the widest leeway. The qualifications should be made not too restrictive," said PBB secretary general M.S. Kaban.
He said the education criteria should refer to the law on general elections, which stipulates that "high school graduate" is the minimum educational requirement for legislative candidates. Bawazier's demand to exclude non-university graduates from the presidential race seems targeted mainly at Megawati. Opposition politicians in the past tried to thwart Megawati's presidential aspirations by saying it was unacceptable to Islam that a woman be president.