Devi Asmarani, Jakarta – Golkar, Indonesia's second-largest party which once ruled the country's politics for thirty years, is preparing to strike back after nearly a year of adversity.

And while many assume it is going downhill with internal rifts and the graft conviction of its chairman Akbar Tandjung, the party is actually abuzz in anticipation of victory in the 2004 election.

Its passport to success is a presidential candidate whom the public cannot refuse, party officials say. With a candidate who receives nationwide support, Golkar is certain the nation would forgive the fact that it is a party headed by a convict.

Observers say this may just work. With the country's first direct presidential election looming, parties have been shopping early for their presidential nominees, embracing figures from religious leaders to army generals. And with the popularity of incumbent President Megawati Sukarnoputri continuing to decline, Golkar's run for the presidency looks promising.

So who can be the party's ticket to success? Five possible names were floated last week, including three senior Cabinet ministers, the Yogyakarta sultan and governor, and a retired general. Only one would be chosen, Mr Akbar has said. But party insiders have hinted that it might be too early to place a bet on any of them. They say: Watch out for a dark horse.

One possible contender is media icon Surya Paloh, who was a Golkar legislator for over a decade until early 1990. He hails from the predominantly Muslim Aceh province; is a successful businessman who owns Media Indonesia daily, Metro TV and a string of luxury hotels and industrial catering businesses; and was a critic of former president Suharto despite his business links to the first family.

Party insiders said Mr Akbar has given the nod to Mr Surya, seeing that his neutrality would help prevent factionalism in the party. Party operatives are said to be doing the groundwork to boost his chances of selection in a party leadership meeting next month, when the names of the presidential nominees might be formally announced.

Meanwhile, Golkar wants the public to know that Mr Akbar has cast aside his previous presidential ambition to keep his post. An analyst close to the party said: "This is a message to Mr Akbar's rivals that they should not fight over his post because he's already decided he won't leave until his term ends."

If Golkar succeeds in the next election, it will be a testament to its survival skills. When the fall of the Suharto regime in 1998 led to a backlash against Golkar, many believed its end had come.

Yet it managed to come in second to the Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle (PDI-P) in the 1999 poll. Mr Akbar, the consummate politician who served in the administrations of both Mr Suharto and his successor, Mr Habibie, has been largely credited with the success.

But last year, he was sentenced to three years' jail for illegally approving a disbursement of state funds to bankroll Golkar's 1999 election campaign. The Parliament Speaker maintained his innocence and he remains free pending his appeal to the Supreme Court. But his case has revived party factionalism, with rivals arguing that he is a liability.

A Golkar chairman can be replaced in mid-term only by an extraordinary leadership meeting recommended by at least two-thirds of the regional chapter. And Mr Akbar enjoys considerable support in most provinces. Many regional party bosses owe their positions to his backing in the past.

But loyalty may not be the only reason behind their support for Mr Akbar. Regional party bosses know that a change in national leadership would destabilise Golkar. Any replacement is unlikely to be powerful enough to garner majority support. Said a party insider: "Golkar cannot afford another destabilising factor so close to the election, our survivability depends on how solid we are now."