A new book on politics in post-Suharto Indonesia says the chances of an Islamic Government taking power are stronger than ever. The book, "Reformasi" says Indonesia's military and conservative elements could use Islam to get a firmer hold on power.
Presenter/Interviewer: Graeme Dobell, Canberra
Speakers: Kevin O'Rourke, author of "Reformasi: The Struggle for power in Post-Suharto Indonesia"
O'Rourke: Categorically, it's the one form of government that Indonesian has not yet experimented with. Indonesia's experienced Sukarno socialism, Suharto's authoritarianism, now the democratic, secular nationalism of Megawati and Wahid prior to her. But, an Islamic-oriented system of government has not yet been tried. And there's a great deal of disenchantment with current events, such that I think the appeal of trying something new is growing greater every day.
Dobell: In the election of 1999, though, the majority of the votes went tio secular parties. How then would Indonesia make such a dramatic shift?
O'Rourke: It's true the majority of the votes went to non-Islamic parties. But yet when the MPR convened in October 1999 to elect a president, the president elected was from the loose alliance of Islamic oriented parties then known as the Central Axis. So despite the results of the popular election, in effect it was political Islam which won the presidential election that year.
Dobell: In your book, you talk about the Indonesian military and conservative forces moving against Megawati and using Islam and the Islamic state as a way of taking power. Is that the way you see it happening?
O'Rourke: I think it's a distinct possibility actually. Recently, the top posts in the military were occupied by two men who are known to have a secular nationalist orientation. However, I think the army's main priority is to defend its political and especially its business interests. Many of those business interests are illicit. So I think they are going to be willing to do whatever it takes to defend their institutional interests.
Dobell: Do you see this being carried out through the presidential election? Will the idea of the Islamic state be one of the issues at the presidential election?
O'Rourke: I'm not sure about an Islamic state per se. But the popular election in June 2004 as well as probably the presidential election in October 2004, assuming the same system is used, will indeed by polarised around the issue of religion. And that's a worrisome prospect in my mind because in 1999 the election was a tripartite affair between the Golkar incumbents, the secular nationalists, PDI-Perjuangan, and the third group being various diverse Islamic-oriented parties. In 2004, it's primarily going to be the incumbent PDI-Perjuangan secular nationalist party versus opposition parties, most of whom are Islamic oriented in some way or another.
Dobell: And how likely do you think it is that Indonesia is on the path towards having some form of Islamic government?
O'Rourke: I guess I'd give it about a 50-50 chance of there being a government that takes power that is controlled predominantly by a loose alliance of Islamic oriented parties. That Indonesia will revert to a strict Islamic state based on a fundamentalist interpretation of Islamic law. That I don't think is a likely prospect.
But a government controlled by Islamic parties, I think that is a distinct possibility. And what that government would look like, is very hard to say. I think we can safely say that corruption would be relatively unchanged, investment would not be helped. But beyond that it's hard to predict what would take place in practice.