Robert Go, Jakarta – Increasing rice shortages could force many Indonesians into having to give up their favourite dish of nasi goreng by the end of the decade.
According to the US Department of Agriculture, Indonesia will become the world's biggest rice importer this year.
It will move into the unenviable position with the importation of more than 2.5 million tonnes – up from 1.5 million tonnes last year – from countries such as Thailand and Vietnam.
Indonesian experts have disputed this assessment, saying the country can maintain production levels and will buy about the same amount of rice as last year. But they do agree that without long-term agricultural planning from Jakarta, the country will have to import more rice by 2010.
Expensive imported rice is a commodity that Indonesia's struggling economy might not be able to afford. Agriculture Minister Bungaran Saragih last week described the food-security issue as "a time bomb" and said Indonesia was still too caught up in quick fixes rather than long-term solutions.
President Megawati Sukarnoputri has said she is "annoyed and embarrassed" by her nation's slide from being a self-sufficient rice producer in the 1980s to a net importer in 2002. Signals from the government suggest it still has no plans for dealing with the problem.
In 1995, Indonesia had to import rice once again after being self-sufficient for 10 years because its production capacity failed to keep up with a quickly growing population.
At the height of the economic crisis in 1998, it bought 5.75 million tonnes to cope with a shortfall in domestic crops hit by drought and pest infestations.
Rice-growing areas continue to shrink. They are down to as low as 11.2 million ha from 16.7 million ha in 1983 as a result of soil erosion and development projects. Farmers have also been switching to more lucrative cash crops such as chillies or corn.
Rising fertiliser costs, degrading soil quality and deteriorating irrigation systems have also contributed to the slump in rice production of the past five years.
The low price of domestic rice, which is regulated by state-logistics agency Bulog, is yet another reason why farmers often plant other crops or abandon their rice fields altogether.
A change in the nation's diet, switching to other foods such as wheat noodles, bread and corn-based items, could help to alleviate the problem. But rice is clearly still the people's choice with many saying they have not eaten properly if they have not had rice.
An adult Indonesian consumes as much as 122 kg of rice each year, according to official estimates. "Indonesians cannot imagine life without rice. That is why the government needs a comprehensive plan to solve the shortage issue," said agricultural economist Dr Dibyo Prabowo. "The reliance on rice is so heavy that shortages of, or price increases for, the commodity could result in social trouble."