Marianne Kearney, Jakarta – Wednesday's killing of the three United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) workers in West Timor illustrates some disturbing trends in Indonesia.
The fact that one year after the initial militia rampage in East Timor, Jakarta was not able to contain the increasingly violent militia, shows very clearly, as one diplomat said, "that Jakarta no longer controls Indonesia".
The militias in West Timor had attacked, threatened or intimidated UN staff on dozens of occasions. Just two weeks ago, when the militia attacked UN staff in West Timor, they were arrested for the first time. But instead of being prosecuted, the militiamen were given a warning and allowed to go free.
Western analysts point to a breakdown in government as well as in the military as one of the causes of Wednesday's incident. "There is no command and control structure. No one is completely in control of anything," said one diplomat.
Diplomats have expressed concern that while Jakarta might claim to be trying to control areas such as West Timor or Maluku, it is in fact not doing so and sees little urgency in bringing these areas under control. "The control of the government has been eroded by the militias, as in Maluku. It is a third force which the TNI are not fighting, which is causing them to lose their sovereignity over West Timor," said another diplomat, lamenting the inability of the Indonesian military to respond to the crisis.
"This is an opportunity for them to dominate West Timor. If they can, they would like to wrest control and establish themselves as a force," said the diplomat, who said there were reports the militias planned to rampage through Kupang as well as Atambua to destroy international installations.
Jakarta's vow to take action in the wake of the West Timor incident is eerily reminiscent of Indonesia's reaction to massacres of Christians in North Maluku in June.
It took a series of massacres in the Malukus, culminating in a particularly gory week which brought the death toll to over 300, plus the threat of international intervention, before Jakarta finally decided to impose a civilian emergency.
President Abdurrahman's international humiliation at the United Nations summit, along with the fact that one of the UN workers killed was a US citizen, has forced Jakarta to launch an investigation. But even that is viewed with some scepticism.
"It will be an investigation like any other Indonesian investigation, in that it will only go so far. They may or may not identify culprits, who may or may not be picked up and then who may or may not be charged," said the diplomat.
Analysts say that the inability to deal with the militias in West Timor also stems from Indonesians' ambivalence about taking action against the Timorese militias whom they see as brothers defending Indonesia's honour, rather than criminals who were sullying it.
But this week's discovery in Sumatra of the body of the Acehnese activist, Jafar Siddiq, who was also a US resident, will place extra pressure on the Indonesians to conduct a credible investigation into the West Timor killings.