Derwin Pereira, Jakarta – Former military strongman Wiranto is finished politically and is unlikely to ever play a dominant role in politics here, Defence Minister Juwono Sudarsono said in an interview.

He said General Wiranto – suspended this month from the post of Coordinating Security Minister – did not have the legitimacy to mount a comeback even if the Attorney-General's Office did not press charges against him over the East Timor debacle.

"Technically, he can return to the Cabinet if the government cannot find anything against him," he told The Straits Times. "But ... there is a less-than-50 per cent chance of his returning. In the minds of the public, he is guilty."

A government-sanctioned inquiry implicated Gen Wiranto and 32 military and civilian officials for being responsible for the bloodshed and destruction in East Timor after residents voted in August to separate from Indonesia.

Pressure has been building up since then to prosecute those responsible, and Attorney-General Marzuki Darusman has indicated that he will determine, within two or three weeks, who should stand trial.

Dr Juwono said if the general escaped charges, there would be some concern that Mr Marzuki's office had given in to "pressure from the military. So it will just be convenient for some people to keep him out for good. Unfortunately for Wiranto, he has become a victim of circumstances."

But some of Gen Wiranto's supporters refuse to accept that the man who played a critical role in Indonesia's political transformation after President Suharto resigned is finished, and argue it is wrong to suggest that national opinion is against him.

"The views of the intellectual elite in Jakarta are not reflective of what the silent majority in the country thinks. Increasingly, a lot are beginning to see Pak Wiranto as being oppressed by the President in a plot to consolidate his grip on power," an aide said.

But senior government officials believe that it is difficult for Gen Wiranto to seize the initiative and turn to other sources of power. Dr Juwono said that aside from international pressure, especially from the United States, political players here would see the general as a "liability". Major parties in the ruling coalition would also not accept him, he added.

Gen Wiranto might gravitate towards Islamic-based groups, as he was doing now, but these would also want to keep a distance when they calculate the political risks involved.

Analysts also say that Gen Wiranto could no longer turn to the Indonesian defence forces (TNI) – whose political influence is waning – for direct political backing given the emasculation of his power base in the army by President Abdurrahman Wahid.

But some in the military argue that by getting rid of Gen Wiranto and his supporters, Mr Abdurrahman could be undermining his own position over time. Said a key army general: "Not many officers are crying over Wiranto's dismissal and they are not going to step into the fray to champion his cause. But the President's continued intervention in military affairs is breeding resentment. "The Wiranto saga is the tip of the iceberg. We perceive it as a larger attack on all of us."