Lindsay Murdoch, Jakarta – Indonesia's Government fears that provocateurs linked to elements of the military and the regime of the corrupt former president Soeharto have begun a campaign to provoke religious and separatist violence across the archipelago.
It believes that small groups with millions of dollars to spend are behind the continuing bloodshed in the Ambon island chain and spreading violence on the resort island of Lombok, in industrial estates on the island of Bintan, near Singapore, and in the provinces of Sumatra and Sulawesi.
The President, Mr Abdurrahman Wahid, has warned of a crackdown on a small number of provocateurs who he says "want to settle the score" against his Government after losing power last year.
He said outbreaks of religious violence in the Maluku region, on Lombok and elsewhere were the product of a conspiracy to distract him and his Government from implementing economic reforms unpopular with vested interests he labelled "dark forces".
"There is a kind of frustration because we are chipping away at their power," Mr Wahid told journalists in Jakarta. "We tried to make the rule of law supreme in this country ... they do not like it because in the past they were used to doing whatever they liked."
Government insiders believe that business people who are facing huge debts after the collapse of the economy are prepared to spend large amounts of money to destabilise an administration which is trying to bring them to account for the plunder of hundreds of millions of dollars of government funds during Mr Soeharto's 32-year rule.
They believe the campaign to force the collapse of the Government involves stirring up sectarian violence on outer islands and then provoking its spread towards the capital, Jakarta.
It is feared the campaign also involves scaring off foreign investors whose support is needed to kick-start the collapsed economy.
Mr Kholiq Achmad, secretary of Mr Wahid's parliamentary faction, told a Jakarta newspaper that the Government had been leaked information that after January 28 violent incidents would be provoked from Lombok to Bali and then across the densely populated island of Java to Jakarta.
Mr Wahid is scheduled to leave on January 28 for a two-week tour of 10 European countries and South Korea.
A leading politician, Mr Amien Rais, warned of "national anarchy" unless the provocateurs were arrested and tried.
The latest Far Eastern Economic Review magazine says a police intelligence report names two former senior members of the Kopassus special forces as being present during riots in Lombok.
Investigations into the cause of violence in Ambon, where more than 1,700 people have died in the past year, have identified four men with links to Mr Soeharto and the former military chief General Wiranto.
The Jakarta Post quoted one investigator, Mr Tamrin Amal Tamagola of the University of Indonesia, as saying that General Wiranto, who is now the co-ordinating minister for political and security affairs, was a key figure "to whom we can trace all connections in the conflict".
But Mr Wahid, asked if he still had confidence in General Wiranto, said: "Of course, yes. As long as he is not proven guilty. I believe in him."
However, Indonesia's media has been speculating for days that Mr Wahid intends to sack General Wiranto in a Cabinet reshuffle. That reshuffle is now not expected until Mr Wahid returns from his overseas trip.
Mr Rais, the Speaker of the upper house of parliament, said it was possible that Indonesia could lose democratic reforms introduced since Mr Soeharto was forced to resign amid widespread bloodshed in 1998. He said that unless the provocateurs were arrested "we will be living in an endless nightmare."
Mr Wahid, a 59-year-old Muslim cleric, said that the Government's patience was running out as violence escalated across the country and elements of the military, especially the army, openly challenged the authority of the Government.
Police have issued shoot-on-sight orders against rioters in Lombok and Ambon in an effort to try to stop the violence that has left hundreds dead in recent weeks.
The military has stepped up attacks in the strife-torn province of Aceh only days before a visit there next Tuesday by Mr Wahid, who earlier ordered the military to remain in the barracks to allow peace talks with separatist rebels to begin.
Mr Rais warned that the violence in Lombok, where dozens of Christian homes were set alight on Wednesday night and looting continued, could spread to the nearby island of Bali, threatening its multi-million-dollar tourist industry.