Chris McCall, Jakarta – Mounting violence between Christians and Moslems in Indonesia's eastern spice islands threatens to set off a chain of religious unrest nationwide unless handled with utmost urgency.

But the shaky government in Jakarta seems unable to take the firm steps needed to stop the violence, political analysts say.

A sudden upsurge in the year-old violence between Christians and Moslems in the Moluccas island killed hundreds in December. It has left President Abdurrahman Wahid and Vice-President Megawati Sukarnoputri – tapped by Wahid to end the violence – looking like lame ducks.

The crisis now looks nearly as intractable as that in the Sumatran province of Aceh, where armed separatists want an independent state. It is arousing strong emotions in other areas and could spread.

"The time for constructive action has almost past," said strategic studies analyst Alan Dupont. "It has now been caught up in this anti-Christian thing. Is is now spilling over into other parts of Indonesia. More drastic action is required."

Calls for jihad

Thousands of Moslems demonstrated in Jakarta last week to demand a holy war or jihad, calling the Moluccas violence an attack on Islam. The Christian community there says it is being exterminated and has called for foreign peacekeepers, which Jakarta has ruled out.

But its own efforts to solve the year-old crisis are floundering badly. Its troops have been accused of taking sides, killing unarmed civilians and looting during house-to-house weapons searches. There are reports of arms being smuggled in for both sides and a naval blockade set up last week may have come too late.

Moslem businessman Des Alwi, an influential figure in the Moluccas, says one group of Moslem intellectuals has already declared a jihad on Ambon island at the heart of the Moluccas.

"There are people going in from all over Indonesia to join in a jihad," said Alwi. "It is not rational any more. You are either a Moslem or a Christian." Jihad may be declared elsewhere, Alwi said, citing the large island Halmahera, where most recent violence occurred.

Any solution would need to begin with the military, said Dupont. But Wahid and the military leadership have not been getting on well, amid rumours that he wants to remove former military chief General Wiranto from his cabinet.

"The military is increasingly reluctant to take firm action when it is needed," said Dupont. "The senior military leadership is concerned about being hauled before human rights tribunals. They have never been very subtle in the way they deal with civil disturbances."

Over the past year the violence has gradually spread from island to island, often along the routes taken by refugees.

Security forces put the number of dead at above 1,500, around one-third of them in December. The independent Commission for Missing Persons and Victims of Violence (Kontras), which has carried out its own monitoring, says several thousand have died.

"A big fire"

The violence has been partly fuelled by local disputes between Christian and Moslem communities over land rights and similar old grudges which are not directly related to religion. Similar tensions between Christian and Moslem communities exist on nearby Sulawesi island, where many refugees have gone, and in Irian Jaya.

Analysts say any attacks during the forthcoming Chinese New Year festival on the Chinese minority on Java and elsewhere – targetted in the past out of resentment over their perceived wealth – might signal serious problems to come.

Megawati was handed personal responsibility by Wahid for solving the crisis but her inaction has prompted calls for her dismissal by Moslem groups, many of whom opposed her appointment. Wahid, who has spent considerable time abroad since his election in October, also lacks a sense of crisis, said academic Arief Budiman of the University of Melbourne. Meanwhile, elements in the military may be prepared to allow the violence to continue, believing it will strengthen their hand politically.

If it spreads to other parts of Indonesia the consequences were likely to be disastrous, Budiman said. It is an issue of mass emotions, which are not always rational, unlike the Aceh crisis where there are clear issues to be addressed. "When that happens it will very quickly become a big fire," he said.