Jakarta – Indonesia's economy is predicted to grow by between three and four percent in 2000 in a new expansion phase following two years of political, economic and financial turmoil, an official said Friday.

"Economic growth will reach three to four percent in the year 2000," said the head of the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), Suwito Sugito.

He said the estimate was based on the fact that Indonesia's exports and imports "have begun to grow again." "Indonesia's real economic sectors are also growing," Sugito told journalists.

Sugito said the positive response to the new government of President Abdurrahman Wahid also supported the forecast.

However analysts said that a number of domestic problems – especially violence in restive Maluku and Aceh provinces – might hamper Wahid's government from reaching the growth target.

Indonesia's economy contracted by nearly 14 percent in 1998 at the peak of the financial crisis that first hit in mid-1997. Authorities have projected a GDP result for 1999 of between a one percent contraction and one percent growth.