Lindsay Murdoch, Dili – It was the birth of a nation, the victorious end to a 24-year struggle for independence. But in Dili today no champagne was flowing, few people were rejoicing.

The words of their leader, Mr Jose "Xanana" Gusmao, before he was taken back to jail in Jakarta, spread quickly. "Today could have been a happy day, a day of celebrations," he said. "But today violence is the rule imposed on the defenceless population forced to witness their homes being burnt to the ground, the looting of their possessions, left to mourn their dead and care for the wounded."

Nothing adds up here. Why did General Wiranto, Indonesia's armed forces chief, suddenly cancel his scheduled visit to East Timor today? Surely his presence would have an enormous restraining influence?

Why is virtually everybody in the know leaving Dili? After being evacuated by helicopter to West Timor today a member of Indonesia's East Timor Taskforce said: "It's not safe there any more." Why is the Indonesian military, which has prided itself on protecting the population, suddenly making public contingency plans to evacuate the equivalent of two grand final football crowds from the territory?

Last night I shared a beer with a senior Indonesian policeman, who was checking his men had secured Dili's main hotels. "I hope daylight does not turn to darkness tomorrow," he said. "But I am worried because if it rains I won't have enough umbrellas." He warned foreign journalists not to leave their hotels for the foreseeable future.

Within an hour of the UN announcing that 78.5 percent of eligible East Timorese had voted to separate, foreign journalists, observers and diplomats were diving for cover outside one of the town's biggest hotels as a pro-Indonesia militiaman opened fire from the back of a motor bike.

Indonesian troops, put on the streets to stop more militia rampages, also ran for cover. Nobody here doubted it was the start of a descent into anarchy.

Before dawn broke over Dili harbor, truckloads of militia had driven to Dili's outskirts, waiting to hear the results of Monday's ballot. Their months-long campaign of terror had failed and they were about to find out. There will be anger.

Mr Eurico Guterres, the leader of the Dili-based militia called Aitarak, or Thorn, surprised everybody by breaking his own ban on East Timorese leaders leaving the territory and caught a plane to Jakarta.

"We have been defeated diplomatically but we are not giving up," he said. The man who, human rights groups say, should be facing charges of mass murder was asked how he felt after hearing the result. "I feel normal," he said. "Peace is peace. We have to accept the result but I demand to maintain my rights as an Indonesian citizen. I can't betray my homeland."

A few days ago Mr Guterres, a one-time Dili gang leader who has strong Indonesian military connections, was threatening East Timor with a "sea of fire" if people voted for independence. A few of us wondered whether he was leaving so that any blame for what is about to happen could not be levelled at him.