Hamish McDonald – In Dili's airport, members of the Aitarak militia stand in the departure lounge, preventing Timorese and Indonesian families boarding the Merpati Airlines jet to fly to Denpasar and safety. Airport police just watch.

In the coffee-growing highlands around Ermera, militias fire home-made guns at a United Nations helicopter trying to take out ballot boxes for counting. A militia member points an M-16 assault rifle at an unarmed UN policeman. A drunken army sergeant blocks a UN evacuation convoy with his vehicle. Indonesian police stand by.

In one of the most prominent military buildings in Dili, the old Portuguese army intendencia, or guardhouse, militia members lounge around the entrance in their gang T-shirts. Out in the suburbs, they wave and fire their guns openly. A prisoner breaks free from a militia camp and seeks shelter in an army barracks. The soldiers let the militias in to take the man out.

So soon after Sunday's UN-brokered agreement between the militias and Falintil independence fighters to canton their forces and withdraw arms from the streets – a deal that brought a vital day of relative freedom over most of East Timor for Monday's successful plebiscite – the will to enforce security seems once again to be slipping fast among Indonesian forces.

At the same time, Indonesia's claims to East Timor are almost palpably weakened, following the 98.6 per cent turnout that signifies a massive rebuff to militia attempts to scare away voters. As the 432,000 votes are counted in Dili's museum over the next three days, Jakarta's authority will weaken further, even before the result is announced next Monday or Tuesday by the UN Secretary-General, Mr Kofi Annan. A transition of power is already under way, and the security mechanisms around it look close to falling apart.

Many townsfolk in Dili have taken to the hills, sheltering with friends, to avoid the next dangerous days.

Maliana, the strife-torn town on the western border, is again described as a "ghost town" by a UN official, after its citizens came back to vote on Monday. The fear is another desperate militia rampage. The 4,000 local staff of the UN mission, being singled out by pro-Indonesian leaders for "telling" people how to vote, are at particular risk. The ultimate strike at democracy, of course, would be an attempt to destroy the counting centre here before the votes are tallied.

Some senior defence analysts believe the Indonesian military, TNI, has come reluctantly to accept the likelihood of East Timor leaving.

A crucial turning point was a Cabinet meeting on July 28 when Defence Minister and TNI commander, General Wiranto, argued passionately for the whole exercise to be called off, on the grounds it was tearing Indonesia apart. After eight hours debate, the civilians in Cabinet prevailed.

But that does not necessarily translate to wholehearted co-operation. Indeed, the flurry of security precautions last week only came after maximum behind-the-scenes diplomatic pressure, including a tweak on the IMF funding strings.

We could still see all the ugliness of a resentful retreat: dumped local militias taking out their defeat on perceived enemies before making their own escape; holdouts trying to hang on to patches of territory in the west; the TNI itself under attack once more as it tries to pack up.

Extra UN military liaison officers began arriving in Dili yesterday, from Australia and Pakistan. Within weeks, the liaison staff will grow from 50 in the pre-ballot phase to 300, while the civilian police component will almost double from 274 officers. But these are all unarmed, with no direct powers beyond advising Indonesian police and soldiers, who have direct security responsibility.

Even on Tuesday night, the Foreign Minister, Mr Downer was arguing on the 7.30 Report that the only alternative to this arrangement was an "invasion" of Indonesian territory to insert the international peacekeeping force which many observers here believe even more necessary than before.

This is disingenuous and no-one, especially not Opposition foreign affairs spokesman, Mr Laurie Brereton, is arguing for it. If the military analysts are right in thinking the TNI will accept the outcome, once a pro-independence vote is declared, it could be persuaded on an early, gradual transfer of power to a UN force that would be here within months.

Australia ruled out yesterday the possibility of Australia participating in any non-United Nations military force in East Timor.

The Minister for Defence, Mr Moore, said Australia was prepared to meet any need for evacuation from East Timor, but added: "Troops from Australia will not go in unless it's at the invitation of the United Nations with the sanction of Indonesia."

But New Zealand's Foreign Affairs Minister, Mr Don McKinnon, said non-UN intervention in East Timor was possible if violence escalated in the troubled territory.

"The worst that could happen is absolute chaos by the end of the week," Mr McKinnon said, adding that the chances of getting a UN mandate for intervention were very low.

He said a group of "like-minded" countries could decide to intervene if the situation deteriorated. "We can't go on hearing about this bloodshed the way it is now and not engage in some sort of a support base," he said, listing Australia, New Zealand, Japan, the United States and possibly members of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) as potential participants.

A spokesman for the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Downer, said last night that he had been surprised by Mr McKinnon's reported comments and had sought clarification.

"Mr McKinnon's office re-assured us that non-UN intervention in East Timor is not an option that is being promulgated by New Zealand because of the self-evident complications associated with it," he said. "For those who have still not got the message, Australia will not be invading Indonesia."

Australia has consistently said armed involvement of its military could only happen with Indonesian Government agreement. Unlike Australia, New Zealand never formally recognised Indonesia's incorporation of East Timor after the 1975 invasion and there have been tensions between Canberra and Wellington on the policy divergence.

ASEAN, which also recognised Indonesian sovereignty over East Timor, would not intervene in East Timor without Jakarta's approval.

Mr Moore will fly to Tindall RAAF base in the Northern Territory this evening to be briefed and to speak to troops involved. He said he saw no reason why normal military exercises with the Indonesian military should not continue, because theywere in Australia's interests.

Labor's foreign affairs spokesman, Mr Laurie Brereton, said the international community, led by the UN, should intervene if Monday's vote went in favour of independence.

The Australian delegation to East Timor had to delay its departure from Dili yesterday because of road blocks erected by pro-Indonesian militias.