Jill Jolliffe, Darwin – Almost exactly 24 years ago, Darwin was put to the test when thousands of traumatised East Timorese refugees fleeing civil war landed from every imaginable type of vessel, only eight months after Cyclone Tracy had almost wiped the city from the face of the earth.
This time city officials are taking no chances – a week before the United Nations-sponsored poll in East Timor, the Northern Territory Chief Minister, Mr Denis Burke, is following the situation closely. A few kilometres out of town the army's 2800- strong First Brigade, the vanguard of Australia's rapid deployment force, is engaged in constant exercises to enhance its intervention readiness – it has been on 28-day alert since June. The navy's HMAS Jervis Bay, a high-speed catamaran that can move 500 soldiers at a time, lies at wait in Darwin harbor. It can reach Dili in about 14 hours and has two crews so it can run a continuous troop shuttle if necessary.
"With this wave slicer we could deploy all of the First Brigade and its equipment there within three days," Mr Burke observed, although like most politicians and military personnel here his official line is that there will be no need for that. They are tight-lipped about possible Australian intervention if things go wrong in East Timor, especially after the controversy this month over an alleged rift between United States and Australian policy makers.
The reality, however, belies the claim that all is well. In the bush outside Darwin, the First Brigade is engaged in Operation Predator's Chariot, which involves an imaginary island called Legais somewhere north of Papua New Guinea. It has been invaded by its traditional enemies, the Musorians and the Kamarians, and the brigade has intervened with American forces to restore its sovereignty.
As M113 armored personnel carriers speed through the bush behind him towards some imaginary enemy target, the brigade's media man, Captain John Liston, described the context of the unit's activities. It first began moving its forces from Sydney to the Top End in 1992, after a debate in defence circles in the late 1980s about the vulnerability of Australia's north coast. There are now 2100 First Brigade personnel here of the total complement of 2800, and by March 2000 the entire force will be concentrated around Darwin.
Today's army is very different from that of 1975 – it is a high-tech army, and the First Brigade is on the cutting edge of change. The fight for Legais is largely conducted with computers. The current exercise is in command-post procedures, on the principle that the the commanders' battle-readiness must be tested as well as that of the soldiers. In various encampments under camouflage netting, men and women are hunched over laptop computers, giving orders that are then distributed through the radio system. This mock battle is described as a "mid-intensity conventional conflict", whereas a previous exercise was in peace-keeping.
Captain Liston said that even in an army as sophisticated as this, soldiers only obey politicians. If they were sent to East Timor, it would be without debate, he said, but like everybody else in authority in Darwin, he denied this was on the cards. "Sure, guys read the papers, they know what's going on in the region, but as far as any specific scenario, we're not preparing anything." On the Jervis Bay, there is a similar state of preparation. Its two captains say the catamaran can be ready for sea on four to 24 hours' notice.
One other military institution that is ready and active is the Defence Signals installation at nearby Shoal Bay, remembered as the interception centre that overheard the Indonesian battle orders given when five Australian-based journalists were killed in the East Timorese town of Balibo on 16 October 1975. "It can pick up the conversations in the Timor Governor's office," one Darwin insider commented.
Mr Burke does not fear a worst-case scenario in East Timor. "I think that, if anything, the situation is improving," he said. "There was a lot of fear and concern. It seems the vote will definitely be for independence and you might get a large-scale emigration of integration supporters into West Timor." But otherwise, he says, "things look pretty good", especially after last week's handover of weapons by pro-Indonesian militias.
The East Timorese in Darwin are not so sure. For Mr Alfredo Borges Ferreira, of the National Council of Timorese Resistance, East Timor's ruling resistance body, the tumult of Darwin 1975 is still a vivid memory. His life is more settled and prosperous now and he hopes he will be able to serve an independent East Timor in the coming period, but he is pessimistic.
"I don't trust the Indonesians," he said. "I think they are preparing something for [election] day or the day before. I believe we will have an around 75 per cent majority ... I don't think they will allow the results to go ahead – they're the same pack of wolves."
His colleague, Mr Roberto de Araujo, regional secretary of the UDT party, shares his view, believing that the Indonesian army will intervene rather than allow independence to go ahead. Darwin's military preparedness is all very well, these two men consider, but if a crisis erupts, by the time the Jervis Bay reaches Timor many lives may have been lost and the situation may have broken down irretrievably, as it did in '75.