There will be fierce retaliation if Jakarta thwarts East Timor's independence ballot, writes Jose Ramos Horta.
The ballot to determine East Timor's future could turn into the biggest electoral fraud of modern times. Intimidation and violence remain widespread ahead of the August 30 referendum, despite the repeated promises by Indonesian authorities to end the terror.
An overwhelming majority of East Timorese would vote for independence – if they were free to. But conditions remain far from appropriate for a democratic ballot.
Many East Timorese imprisoned for peaceful protest against Indonesia's illegal occupation of their homeland are still to be released. Yet not one leader of the militias nor any member of the security forces responsible for the murder of innocent women and children has been brought to justice. Campaigning for the referendum has officially begun, but Xanana Gusmao and other exiled leaders, like myself, are not allowed to return to East Timor even though this is contrary to the May 5 accords between Portugal, Indonesia and the UN. Xanana is in detention and allowed to campaign only through TV and radio. He says there is no point trying to campaign through East Timorese media largely controlled by Indonesia.
The Indonesians will go to any lengths to increase their stranglehold on East Timor even if it means breaching international agreements.
While pro-independence leaders are excluded, Abilio Araujo has been allowed back to East Timor to campaign for "autonomy" within Indonesia. Araujo, who has lived in Lisbon since 1972, was a leader of Fretilin, a Marxist and a Maoist ideologue, and the man most responsible for the sectarian divisions that have racked East Timor.
At the start of the decade, this Marxist-turned-businessman began to court the Soeharto family, changed sides, and was expelled from Fretilin. That a renegade Marxist hardliner is able to return while Xanana is not says a lot about the farce that the UN-sponsored referendum is becoming.
In a scathing report last week, the Atlanta-based Carter Centre documented Indonesian military actively supporting and directing pro-integration militias which were creating a climate of fear and intimidation. Recruited from as far as Java, where unemployment and criminality are very high, the militias have unleashed an unprecedented campaign of violence that has cost the lives of more than 1,000 innocent villagers, razed entire villages and uprooted more than 80,000.
The May 5 pact entrusts the Indonesian police force with responsibility for security even though it is notoriously corrupt and violent. Hundreds of the much-hated special forces unit, the Kopassus, have been sent to East Timor disguised as police.
The Indonesian army has not withdrawn a single combat battalion from the territory. Leaked confidential military documents identify well over 18,000 Indonesian troops in East Timor. Along with the 8,000 police already there and the hundreds of Kopassus troops disguised as members of the police corps, plus the thousands in armed gangs, they make East Timor one of the most militarised territories in the world.
All this makes for an extremely dangerous situation. Full-scale violence before or after the ballot is now almost certain.
The Indonesian army hierarchy still clings to the illusion that it will secure a pro-integration vote through terror and fraud. It fails to realise that if the ballot is not free, conflict will continue. And this time our mild manners will be cast aside.
The next phase of resistance will be much more desperate and ferocious and will not be contained to East Timor.
To start with, no Portuguese government would ever recognise the result of a fraudulent ballot. Domestic opinion would force it to secure a mandatory arms embargo and economic sanctions against Indonesia by its European and NATO partners.
The UN Secretary-General would be pressed to seek an ad hoc war crimes tribunal on East Timor to indict Indonesian military officers (past and present) and militia leaders. The World Bank, already severely criticised for fuelling corruption during the Soeharto era, would be under extreme pressure from many quarters to freeze new funds for Jakarta. The US Congress would vote against allocating funds to a country whose elected authorities were unable or unwilling to rein in their army.
And how could Australia stand by and just watch? It would lose all credibility and Australians would be the laughing stock of the region.
Indonesian diplomatic and trade representatives in Australia and Europe would be targeted by demonstrations, picketing and sit-ins. Indonesian peace-keepers sent to other areas of conflict would be in danger and ostracised.
East Timorese groups have set aside a "war budget" of several million dollars to wage a sustained public relations campaign against Indonesia's tourism industry. Travel agencies around the world would be urged not to process bookings for Indonesia. A world-wide "boycott Bali" campaign would be launched. The Indonesian national carrier Garuda would have to suspend its operations.
More than 100 computer wizards – mostly teenagers – in Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Belgium, Brazil, the US and Canada are preparing a plan targeting the computer network of the Indonesian government, army, banking and finance institutions to create chaos. A dozen special viruses are being designed to infect the Indonesian electronic communications system, including aviation.
One computer wizard recently told me: "We will terminate their banking system. We will invade their sites and destroy them. People will be scared to travel to Indonesia when they know that we are also infecting their air communications. We will cause them to lose hundreds of millions of dollars".
My concluding message to the Indonesians is: Back off before Indonesia is plunged into a new round of an even more costly war.