Dili – A confidential Indonesian government report predicts social chaos in East Timor as Indonesians flee following an expected vote in favour of independence in August.
The report called for the immediate drawing up of a contingency plan to evacuate Indonesian public servants and migrants to a neighbouring province before the result of the United Nations-organised ballot was announced. It recommended that vital facilities should be destroyed as Indonesians quit East Timor.
East Timorese are due to vote on August 21 or 22 for either independence or limited self-rule under Jakarta. The leadup to the ballot has been marred by violence by anti-independence militia.
The confidential document leaked in Dili, dated July 3 and signed by a senior government internal affairs official, appeared to concede that East Timorese would reject autonomy under continued rule by Jakarta and vote for full independence.
It listed problems facing the pro-autonomy camp, blaming both pro-independence East Timorese staff employed by the UN and the slowness of Indonesia's response to the needs of poor Timorese as contributing to the expected rejection of "special autonomy".
"Our former enthusiastic optimism has turned to doubt," stated the report, signed by H.R. Ganardi, the special assistant to the Indonesian government's coordinating minister of internal political affairs. "It would not be wrong to predict the worst-case scenario – that special autonomy will be rejected."
The report predicted a period of social chaos in East Timor as the economy was paralysed because Indonesian business people had fled to neighbouring West Timor.
Pro-independence supporters had already listed the assets they were going to seize when the Indonesians left but were "currently not yet capable of running a society or even keeping a hospital running", the five-page document said.
Australia, the UN Assistance Mission in East Timor (UNAMET), and the Catholic church would control East Timorese society after the flight of Indonesian public servants and business people.
"At the best, aspects of society will be controlled by the church, while UNAMET and Australia and their volunteers will control the rest," the report said.
Recommendations passed on to Indonesian Interior Minister Feisal Tanjung included that an immediate plan be made to evacuate all Indonesian public servants and migrants to West Timor before the announcement of the ballot result.
The report recommended Indonesian armed forces be put on alert and prepared for action near the evacuation areas, and that West Timor be made ready to receive huge numbers of refugees.
It also called for the planning and securing of evacuation routes and the destruction of facilities and other vital objects as the Indonesians pulled out.
The report claimed pro-independence forces have in the past month received airdrops of weapons which were not likely to be surrendered. It said the likelihood was high that pro-independence guerrillas would fight on after the ballot as they tried to secure their interests.
At the same time as planning a withdrawal from East Timor, the document recommended that full support of pro-Indonesian forces must continue. "The government's commitment must be confirmed through empowering the pro-integration forces," it stated.
It added that these elements placed great hope in an injection of strength from the Indonesian government to conduct an "Operation of Sympathy" – a term most observers here interpret as a renewed campaign of the violence by pro-Jakarta militia that has plagued the colony since last November.
The UNAMET mission in East Timor is understood to be in possession of the leaked document and is currently analysing its contents.