Shoeb Kagda, Jakarta – Megawati Sukarnoputri's Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle (PDI-P) and the ruling Golkar will be locked in a dead heat in terms of seats won by them and their likely coalition partners, a BT projection of the final seat tallies in the just-concluded Indonesian elections shows.
While the PDI-P has surged ahead in the vote count with 50 per cent of the ballots tallied, the picture is different when these votes are translated into actual seats in the 500-seat Parliament.
This is because Indonesia's outlying provinces, where Golkar's more established party machinery has proved decisive, carry a rich vein of parliamentary seats. So, while Golkar has performed badly in the populous urban centres, this has proved less damaging for seat allocations.
BT's projections show that PDI-P will finish with 154 seats. Its likely coalition partner, the National Awakening Party (PKB), could finish with 52 seats bringing its total to 206 seats in the 500-seat Parliament.
BT's projections put Golkar finishing with 117 seats. Its likely coalition partners – the National Development Party (PPP), the Justice Party and the Partai Bulan Bintang – could end up with 58 seats, 6 seats and 12 seats respectively. That puts the Golakr faction strength at 193 seats.
Analysts said the king makers in the equation could be Amien Rais' National Mandate Party (PAN) which is projected to secure 42 seats and the armed forces which has been allocated 38 seats in Parliament under the country's constitution.
The final seat tallies are important because it is Parliament, together with regional representatives and civic groups, which will decide the bigger prize – who will govern Indonesia in November's presidential elections.
Only 462 members in the House of Representatives (DPR), the national Parliament, are elected because 38 seats are reserved for members of the armed forces.
These 500 members then join another 200 members selected from the provincial parliaments and various civic organisations in the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) to elect the president.
According to political pundits, as the counts from the provinces stream in, Golkar could secure a substantially higher number of seats than earlier anticipated.
Under the country's electoral system, each of the 27 provinces is given a certain quota of votes needed to secure one seat in the House of Representatives (DPR). This quota is arrived at by dividing the number of valid votes with the total number of seats on offer.
The quota, according to Andi Mallarengeng, a member of the National Elections Commission (KPU), varies from province to province but generally, provinces with higher population densities would have higher quotas.
For example, a party would have to win 320,000 votes in East Java to secure one seat from the province but in distant Irian Jaya, just 77,000 votes secures a seat. "So one million votes in East Java would get you only two seats but in Irian Jaya, it gives you 10 seats," said Dr Mallarengeng.
While the PDI-P has done well in the four provinces in Java in terms of percentage of votes secured, the party has not picked up a large number of the seats. Golkar, on the other hand, has done well in the outer provinces and has picked a substantially larger percentage of the seats.
Umar Juoro, a senior presidential adviser, reckons that Golkar can win the majority of the seats in 11 to 14 provinces while the PDI-P will be able to take only eight to 10 provinces.
The final count will, therefore, likely pitch the two parties in a headlong battle with neither having the number of seats required to get its presidential candidate elected on its own.
This would mean that each party will have to woo possible coalition partners to gain the upper hand.
"For now it is still very unclear who will win and by how much, but I am sure the fight for the presidency will be between [President B.J.] Habibie and Megawati," Mr Juoro told BT.
"Habibie enjoys strong support in eastern Indonesia while the other Golkar candidates such as Akbar Tanjung and Marzuki Darusman only have limited support in Java and Sumatra."
He added that while the PDI-P will win a higher number of seats, its margin over Golkar will only be between 20 and 50 seats. "If the margin is more than 50 seats, a PDI-P coalition will have the chance to win but if it is less, I think a Golkar-led coalition stands a better chance."
Ms Megawati, he noted, faces an additional hurdle of convincing members of her party's most likely coalition partner, the Muslim-based National Awakening Party (PKB), that a woman can rule Indonesia. Recently, leaders of a number of Islamic-linked parties including the National Development Party (PPP) have said that they will only support a male Muslim for the presidency.
"I don't think PKB can resolve the woman issue and this will create complications regarding the presidential elections," said Mr Juoro. "But changing candidates will not be easy for either Golkar or PDI-P given that their supporters voted for them because of their presidential candidates."
President Habibie, he noted, remained optimistic that he would prevail as he expects to carry the Muslim ground given that a lot of Muslim leaders are getting nervous of being sidelined should the PDI-P, with its heavy Christian emphasis, were to succeed.
Given the fact that the race will be very close, two factions within the DPR could provide the swing votes, said Muhammad Hikam, researcher at the Centre for Economics and Development Studies. The National Mandate Party (PAN) led by Amien Rais and the 38 members of the armed forces could prove decisive in electing the country's next president. "It will be very close and the military will be important as it has to decide whether to support the pro-reform coalition or the Golkar-led coalition. Until now, the military leadership is still unsure."
Dr Rais, speaking at a press conference yesterday, said that while his party was effectively out of the presidential race, it would act responsibly if it came down to deciding between the two major coalition blocks.
"There is no such thing as two groups being exactly the same; one must be better and we will play our card to support the better group when the time comes."
While he has recently met Dr Habibie, Mr Tanjung and armed forces chief General Wiranto, Dr Rais said no deals had been struck. He viewed the possibility of forming a coalition with Golkar as being "almost nil".
On the issue of a woman being the next president, the Muslim leader noted that Islam did not make any distinctions between gender and that both man and woman are equal "in the eyes of God".