[The following is an opinion piece from Monday's Asian Wall Street Journal. Van Zorge and O'Rourke are editors of the Van Zorge Report, a biweekly publication on Indonesian politics and economics.]
James Van Zorge and Kevin O'rourke, Hong Kong – Today for the first time in 44 years Indonesians are choosing their representatives for the national parliament in a free and fair election. However, the integrity of the balloting process is only the first step in the nation's transition to democracy. Several considerations – electoral imbalances, intra-party cleavages and the potential role of money politics – mean that today's vote might indicate relatively little about who will ultimately win Indonesia's presidency. That in turn means there is still a danger that the new government may not have the popular mandate it needs to govern.
The voters have plenty of choices on a ballot crowded with 48 parties. Those looking for a party that symbolizes a complete break with the Suharto past will find Megawati Sukarnoputri's PDI Perjuangan an attractive choice. Other pro-reform voters who are less comfortable with Megawati's pronounced secularism might opt for Amien Rais' National Mandate Party. Those preferring an even more overtly Islamic option can choose from among any of the eight parties of the newly-formed "Islamic Alliance." Those who prefer the political status quo – or who are too far removed from the centers of political activity to know enough about Indonesia's 45 new parties – could select the ruling Golkar party.
Who will be the big winners and losers in the balloting is anyone's guess. Party heads making detailed estimates based on polling results are in fact engaging in wishful thinking. Free elections are a relatively new phenomenon in Indonesia, as are scientific polling techniques, and those polls that have been conducted suggest that a large number of voters are undecided. Nevertheless, Golkar Chair Akbar Tandjung says he is confident that Golkar will win close to 40% of the national vote.
The arithmetic suggests that the PDI Perjuangan and its ally, Gus Dur's National Awakening Party, need to win a combined 50% of today's vote to have a good chance of placing Megawati in the presidency. To be virtually assured of her presidency, they will need over 60%. Meanwhile, a Golkar-Islamic alliance would only need approximately 40% to have a good chance of winning the presidency, and perhaps 50% to 55% to sew up the presidential race.
Why the different calculations? They are mostly based on Golkar's strength among over-represented Outer Island voters. Although PDI Perjuangan is the hands-down favorite on Java, home to 58% of the country's people, half of the Parliament's seats are from the Outer Islands, where both Golkar and the Islamic parties are likely to fare best. Golkar stands to benefit from its superior infrastructure in remote regions, as well as a relatively stronger economy off Java. The rupiah's drastic devaluation has been a boon to many export-driven Outer Island provinces. Islamic parties also enjoy stronger support outside Java, where a more orthodox religious belief prevails.
In addition, Golkar benefits from the presidential selection process. The winners of today's elections will not only fill the 462 parliamentary seats, they will also take their places in the People's Consultative Assembly, which meets in October to select the president. The balance of the Assembly's 700 seats will be made up of appointed representatives from the military (38), "functional groups" (65) and regional parliaments (135). Inclusion of the latter creates a distinct regional imbalance in the Assembly: Java will account for only 36% of the Assembly's seats, while 49% come from the Outer Islands and 15% from the regionally neutral military and functional groups.
Arithmetic aside, even if either of the two broad coalitions do reach the threshold point for a probable victory, one must exercise some caution before making any firm conclusions. Politics is not necessarily a linear exercise. In this case, one should pay careful attention to two factors that could easily upset the coalition exercise and cause chaotic conditions: intra-party factions and money politics.
Given the recent facelift in Indonesian politics, it is not surprising that many of the larger parties are torn over whom to support for president. A bitter rift within Golkar appeared earlier this year when the party named five presidential candidates; only recently did the party's leadership knit together an uneasy consensus behind the sole candidacy of B.J. Habibie.
Dispute over an appropriate presidential candidate is also clearly visible with the National Awakening Party. Gus Dur (also known as Abdurrahman Wahid) is a close friend of Ms. Megawati, and he personally supports her as a presidential aspirant. However, influential party members (namely senior clerics of the traditionalist Islamic organization Nahdlatul Ulama) are far less enthusiastic about supporting a woman for president – particularly one who is so overtly secularist.
The same type of dissent can be found in the National Mandate Party, whose main constituency derives from the modernist Islamic organization Muhammadiyah, which Amien Rais once headed. Mr. Rais has struggled to broaden his party's appeal to a more moderate, less Islamic-leaning electorate. However, the culmination of this effort, a vague "joint communique" with the secular-nationalists, triggered a near-revolt by Muhammadiyah Islamists. In the final days preceding the election Mr. Rais has clearly swung toward the Islamic camp.
Such cleavages inside the major parties strongly suggest that once party delegates sit inside the Assembly to vote on a new president, many could defect and vote for another party's candidate. Making the picture even murkier is the distinct possibility that money politics will play a prominent role in the Assembly. In a country notorious for corruption, financial incentives could create substantial numbers of defections – particularly among the pivotal regional representatives. This would, presumably, play into the hand of the well-heeled incumbents, Golkar.
At this point we can only draw a few preliminary conclusions on how the election results will have an impact on Indonesia's prospects for political stability and hence a successful democratic transition. A resounding victory by the PDI Perjuangan in the general elections and the emergence of Megawati Sukarnoputri as the winner in the upcoming presidential elections would signal the best prospects for social stability. This is because Ms. Megawati, unlike any other leading political figure in the country, symbolizes a complete break from the Suharto past. Her victory would be synonymous with the establishment of a legitimate government in the eyes of the Indonesian public.
But barring this result, a distinct possibility is a deadlocked Assembly, leading to the victory of a compromise presidential candidate. This scenario is likely if the results of the general elections show a tight spread in the number of votes won by the nationalist-secular and Islamic alliances. At present, such dark horses include Yogyakarta's Sultan Hamengkubuwono X, armed forces chief General Wiranto, and Nurcholish Madjid. However, each has significant drawbacks as a presidential candidate. The strongest of the compromise candidates, General Wiranto is a smart politician and has keen leadership skills, but similar to other figures associated with the Suharto era, he would face a big challenge in establishing his legitimacy.
Amid the uncertainty, one point remains clear: If Golkar records a surprisingly strong showing in the general elections – more than 25% – or if it ultimately manages to win in the Assembly with B.J. Habibie as its presidential candidate, allegations of fraud would undoubtedly follow. In this scenario, a large and vociferous segment of the population would deem the government illegitimate, crippling the country. Such strife would be most intense on the main island of Java, which by all indications constitutes the most vehement anti-Golkar segment of the population. Ironically, in that case President B.J. Habibie's efforts to lead Indonesia into a new, democratic future would prove to be an abject failure.