Yang Razali Kassim – Is the Indonesian opposition's dream of a united front as good as shattered?
Amanat Demokrat Bangsa – for the Nation's Democratic Mandate – is a clever slogan to rally the diverse ranks of the opposition. But the aim of forging a strategic alliance among Indonesia's three emergent opposition heavyweights has taken a setback from which it may not recover.
The word amanat comes from the National Mandate Party (PAN) of Amien Rais. The word demokrat is borrowed from Megawati Sukarnoputri's Indonesian Democratic Party Perjuangan (PDI-Struggle).
And bangsa obviously is in deference to the National Awakening Party (PKB) of Abdurrahman Wahid, better known as "Gus Dur" – the man who pulls the PKB strings from his powerful position in the influential Nahdatlul Ulama (NU).
It was Dr Amien who partly made the alliance possible. When it was first announced last week, it created a stir, raising hopes among those who have longed for an effective opposition as a check against self-serving government.
It is a most unlikely marriage of convenience, given the mutual apprehensions among the three, especially between PAN and PKB and between PAN and PDI-P.
Naturally, the announcement of the alliance – called Paso communique after the place it was born – raised high expectations that finally, a new force is emerging with the substantial clout to match or even replace the ruling Golkar.
Some go so far as to predict the birth of a new architecture in Indonesian politics. But a week into the Indonesian hustings, the cynics are being proven right. Those who hope for Golkar to be toppled through the ballot box on June 7 are now having second thoughts.
Even before the emerging alliance can take root, let alone grow, the leaders of the Big Three are already arguing in the open. The acrimony stemmed from a unilateral move by Dr Amien to extend the Paso alliance to include the crucial Islamic constituency, with whom PAN has strong links through its roots in the Muhammadiyah social movement.
The Kartika Chandra pact, as it is known, saw PAN forming a pact with the United Development Party (PPP) of former investment minister Hamzah Haz, and the Justice Party (Keadilan).
The trouble is, that link with PPP turned out to be too sensitive for Gus Dur and his party. When BT met him yesterday, the NU chief, whom Asiaweek ranked as one of the 50 most powerful men in Asia, made no bones about how rankled he is.
He accused Dr Amien of only informing, but not consulting, him about the plan. Gus Dur blasted the PAN leader of being "carried away with his presidential ambition".
Whether or not this is needlessly harsh, Dr Amien should have known better how sensitive Gus Dur's PKB is about "the PPP factor". The PPP is a traditional rival. Though many of its members also come from the NU, the PPP has for many years been used by the Suharto regime to neutralise NU's political muscle – and the scar still remains today.
In the hustings, PPP and PKB supporters have even clashed, leading to some deaths. Both sides are still smarting from this.
Clearly, under the circumstances, a direct linkage between the PPP and PKB is unthinkable. Dr Amien bridged that gulf, and in that sense made a shrewd move to work around the minefields blocking a wider opposition united front.
And in so doing, Dr Amien achieved two other objectives. The first was to reconcile the Islamic and nationalist/secularist constituencies within PAN itself so that the party will remain pluralist – and potent at the same time.
The second is to bridge the other gulf: the one between the nationalists/secularist streams that the PKB-PDI alliance represents, and the Islamic/nationalist bloc that PAN can claim to represent.
It is important for Dr Amien's PAN to do this. For without its Islamic support base, it will be in danger of being marginalised by Gus Dur's PKB or Ms Megawati's PDI-Struggle. But PAN has come to be too identified with the core of the reformist movement – thanks to Dr Amien's pivotal role in the May 1998 uprising – to dwindle into insignificance.
Unfortunately, the leaders of PKB and PDI do not see it this way. Hence Gus Dur's caustic comments, perhaps unfairly, of Dr Amien's presidential ambitions.
But the real problem for the Indonesian opposition is the historical baggage and competing ambitions that keep getting in the way.
Gus Dur, Ms Megawati and Dr Amien all see themselves as the rightful claimant to the mantle of national leadership now being held, precariously, by President B J Habibie. The three opposition leaders, or their lieutenants, share one thing: they believe they are the ones with the largest following and who therefore deserve to lead.
But that said, coalition politics is an idea whose time has come in Indonesia. It need not face a still-born death if only the key opposition players can overcome their oneupmanship and mutual suspicions.
If the Big Three cannot do this, they will find themselves upstaged by dark horses and other newcomers. It may well even be the New Golkar Party that will steal the thunder from them – and that will really be an embarrassing blow to the nascent opposition.