Cameron Stewart and Don Greenlees – UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan has been advised the UN-sponsored vote on autonomy for East Timor might not be possible if violence in the territory remains at current levels.
This view was put to Mr Annan this week by the UN advance reconnaissance team that returned to New York from East Timor on Tuesday, according to senior UN officials.
The team was "extremely pessimistic" about the outlook for security in the territory, the officials said. "Some of them say in private they do not believe the vote will take place," said one UN official.
The team's conclusions are said to have led Mr Annan to strengthen the wording of a report on East Timor to be delivered to the UN Security Council on Monday. He is expected to express grave concern about the security situation, and some officials believe he will call on Jakarta to do more to quell the violence.
Mr Annan has until June 13 to decide whether East Timor is stable enough to allow for a free and fair vote, slated for August 8, on the autonomy package.
Foreign Minister Alexander Downer said yesterday Australia did not want to see the ballot jeopardised but he would not add his voice to the UN report that violence could prevent it.
"I don't want to encourage the perpetrators to increase the level of violence," he said. "There's far too much violence and it needs to be reduced, there needs to be greater restraint."
Jakarta-based Western diplomats yesterday played down any suggestions the vote might be postponed, arguing they hoped the security situation would improve after the arrival of a 300- strong police force and other UN personnel in mid-June.
They said there were encouraging signs the Indonesian military would make greater efforts to stop the violence after weeks of pressure from a number of Western governments.
The diplomatic sources also doubted whether the UN would be prepared to call off the ballot when pro-independence forces, the target of the militia violence, were united in demanding the ballot proceed.
Mr Annan's report to the Security Council comes amid growing tension between Indonesia and the UN. Jakarta this week accused the UN mission in East Timor of bias against pro-Indonesia militias after UN officials complained about renewed attacks on civilians in the territory.
UN spokesman in East Timor, David Wimhurst, revealed on Thursday he had witnessed Indonesian soldiers training militiamen at Atsabe, about 100km south of Dili, while on a mission to investigate the killing of at least six people last Sunday in nearby Atara.
Meanwhile, the UN said yesterday the UN mission in East Timor would cost about $US53 million ($80 million) and there remained a funding shortfall of $US25.4 million. The UN is negotiating with several countries, including the US, to commit funds.
The budget papers also stated the mission would include up to 300 civilian police (at a cost of $US7.4 million), 400 UN volunteer electoral observers and 241 "substantive and administrative" personnel. There also would be about 4000 local (non-UN) staff.
It is understood 50 Australian Federal Police officers will be included in the UN contingent.