Andreas Harsono, Jakarta – It is still more than six months until Indonesia will choose a new president, but the most likely candidates are already out in force in a display of public politicking that hasn't been seen for a generation.
Many foreign diplomats and political observers believed that President B.J. Habibie is starting with some strong advantages – especially his right as president to appoint delegates to the People's Consultative Assembly, which elects the president and vice president by consensus for five-year terms – that may easily make him the winner in the November election.
But Habibie will still face tough competition, ranging from long-time opposition politician and front-runner, Megawati Sukarnoputri, to Muslim leader Amien Rais of the National Mandate Party.
"It is quite likely Golkar will nominate Habibie; they are left with little choice," said political analyst Wimar Witoelar, who hosts a television talk show.
Megawati has topped the competition in many different public polls, proving that she is more popular than Habibie, who has been badly hurt by the leak of a taped telephone conversation about the investigation of former President Suhartto's allegedly ill-gotten wealth.
The red-and-black banners, posters and pedestrian shelters of Megawati's party dot many Indonesian cities, omsetime in unusual places ranging from a slum area in that capital, Jakarta, to a hamlet in the remote area of Gunung Kidul in central Java.
She is seen as likely to get the votes of near-fanatical supporters of her Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle plus traditional Muslim voters and retired military officers.
Megawati is a part of a three-sided coalition which includes Muslim leader Abdurrahman Wahid of the 35-million strong Nahdlatul Ulama, Indonesia's largest Muslim group, and Sultan Hamengku Buwono X of the Yogyakarta aristocracy.
The Jakarta-based Merdeka daily reported in February that the three figures have agreed to support one to each other. Initially, the paper said, the arrangement was that Wahid would run for president. But if the nearly-blind Wahid cannot make the run, as is considered likely, Megawati would replace him. And if Megawati cannot run, both of them will support the Sultan to be the president. the paper said.
Meanwhile, former military chief Edi Sudradjat has also emerged as a candidate of the Justice and Unity Party, which groups former military officers and bureaucrats who hail from the "red and white" (after the Indonesian flag) school of nationalists.
But the influential Amien Rais, a key figure in the nationwide protests that overthrew Suharto after 32 years in power a year ago, made an predicted earlier this month that Habibie would win easily the November contest.
"I calculate that Habibie has 313 of the approximately 470 votes needed to become president," Rais said.
Amien explained that to elect a person to the presidency, two thirds, or 467, of the votes of the 700-strong People's Consultative Assembly's (MPR) votes are needed.
According to the recently-passed election laws, the MPR includes all members of the 500-member House of Representatives (DPR), of which 38 were appointed military officers (only 462 of the House members are elected legislators).
The remaining 200 MPR delegations include 135 regional delegates from provincial representative councils as well as 65 members from a variety of professional associations.
"There will be 135 votes from the regional delegates chosen by the provincial-level people's representative councils. With money politics, lobbying and manipulation, these will go into Habibie's pocket," said Amien.
Theoretically, Habibie could appoint 65 professionals who are in favor of voting for him. As a practical matter, Habibie will easily control 200 votes. "Add to this the armed forces gratis seats, another 38," Amien explained.
"Now, if Golkar were to win 15 percent of the vote, then they would get 75 votes. This then adds up to 313 votes, so Habibie only needs a further 80 votes," he calculated.
For that reason, Amien continued, a coalition between parties who want change is needed to defeat those supporting the status quo and a return of Suharto's New Order regime.
Amien has tried his best to build a coalition with the Megawati camp. But it is a public secret here that Wahid, a long-time foe of Amien, who used to head Indonesia's second largest Muslim group, the Muhammadiyah, does not like the idea.
If that remains the case, it is not impossible that the coalition's leadership would end up in the hands of Nurcholish Madjid, another noted Muslim thinker of the Paramadina University in Jakarta.