Mark Riley, New York – Indonesia is believed to have gutted the proposed statute of autonomy for East Timor, removing many of the major components and increasing the likelihood of continued clashes in the strife-torn region.
The final round of meetings on the proposed autonomy ballot is still expected to go ahead at the United Nations this week, despite the Dili massacre by pro-Indonesian militia at the weekend.
The Indonesian delegation had been granted an extension to consider the original autonomy proposal and will present its suggested amendments in New York this week.
The Herald has learned that the Indonesians are planning to demand significant changes, including that the Indonesian armed forces (ABRI) retain a presence on the island.
The Indonesian amendments would allow an East Timorese police force to operate, but with stronger links to the Indonesian police. It is also understood that Jakarta will insist it retain control over East Timor's natural resources.
As well, Indonesia is expected to reject key sections of the autonomy proposal that would allow East Timor to have its own flag and state emblem.
It is further understood that Indonesia will reject components that would have allowed East Timor to be represented in international organisations under its own name.
This would also prevent an autonomous East Timor from having its own football team, or seeking to participate in international sporting competitions in its own colours.
The Indonesian and Portuguese ambassadors to the United Nations will meet with their senior officials over two days before a final proposal is considered at a meeting on Friday between the respective Foreign Ministers and the UN Secretary-General, Mr Kofi Annan.
Several sources familiar with the process suggest the Indonesian amendments would make the autonomy package unacceptable to the majority of East Timorese and expect the planned vote in July would be defeated.
Some believe the Portuguese will agree to the Indonesian amendments because they know this will damn the proposition to failure and increase the likelihood of a move towards total independence.
However, diplomats believe this could prompt the armed militia groups in East Timor to intensify their terror campaigns, which have already resulted in dozens of deaths in a series of massacres.
The greatest concern in the halls of the United Nations this week is that the situation could dissolve into one of all-out civil war and that Indonesia might simply walk away and leave the East Timorese to fight it out.
As Mr Annan prepares for the final round of talks, he has directed his staff to map out plans to ensure security in the region for the planned ballot and beyond.
Discussions are being conducted behind closed doors on a variety of contingencies that include possible military involvement by Australia and other countries.
"The problem is that Indonesia would have to first agree to allowing foreign troops into East Timor, and there is no certainty of that," one official said.
"And then, they could only disarm the militia if the militia agreed to be disarmed. Otherwise, the whole situation could dissolve into a quasi-Kosovo."