Philip Bowring, Jakarta – The communal horrors of East Timor, Ambon and West Kalimantan are real enough. But they no more describe Indonesia than Kashmir, Bihar and Assam describe India. More remarkable is how stable the heartland, Java, now seems after 18 months of political and economic crisis and the battle of 48 parties for votes in the country's first open parliamentary election June 7. It could be the calm before another storm. Some electioneering violence is inevitable, if only because of the size of crowds that can be generated on a densely populated island. But despite the excitement of elections, and despite regional, religious and income divides, there is an air of normalcy.

The main players have moved toward the center to broaden their appeal and prepare the way for future alliances. The poll will be inconclusive, so coalitions are inevitable. One such player has been Amien Rais, head of the Muhammadiyah Islamic organization and of the PAN, or National Mandate Party. Previously feared by secularists and Chinese, he has shifted from a strongly Muslim and redistributionist agenda to one broadly attractive to the urban middle class - and even backed by Chinese money.

Megawati Sukarnoputri, the daughter of Indonesia's founding leader, President Sukarno, is saying little about policy, but her Indonesian Democratic Party is widely tipped to emerge as the largest party and has been developing links to military figures and professional, secularist rebels from the governing Golkar party.

The strongest force at work at the grass roots is not ideology but simply a desire to participate. For every member of the old elite who fears elections and wants to see them disrupted, there are at least two who want the vote to show that the nation is capable of political development.

Suspicions that the elections might be rigged or popular will might be thwarted by the military still exist. There is evidence of high-placed stirring in Ambon. In remoter areas, Golkar may use the government machinery in its favor, although in any case it will fare better in areas outside Java, which have been less affected by the economic crisis. There is concern that even if Golkar genuinely does well, the masses of Java who demand real change will take to the streets.

In theory, a big Golkar showing could thwart change. Add in the 38 military seats in the 500-member Parliament and most of the 200 indirectly elected and appointed seats in the 700-member People's Consultative Assembly - which selects the president - and Golkar could remain in control.

In practice, however, that seems unlikely. Golkar itself is factionalized, with different groups - Islamists, liberal secularists, upholders of the status quo - having different ideas on whether to support the election of President B.J. Habibie. Moreover, the electoral commission, which oversees the election, has a broad base and has established an independent reputation.

There are dangers that some groups will use violence to disrupt the democratic process. A bigger danger may be that horse trading and money politics at the consultative assembly will deliver a president whose support is broad-based but derived from compromises that make weak government inevitable. Such a government may fail to live up to demands for reform.

The most ardent reformers are themselves divided into the secular and Islamist camps represented respectively by the Indonesian Democratic Party and PAN. Islamist parties, and even the Indonesian Democratic Party, are themselves multihued and interleaved with strands of nationalist, statist and free-market thinking.

Battles for economic interest will be intense, but divides are not all along party lines. There is a unique opportunity for the government, which is having to bail out the banking system, to acquire bankrupt assets on behalf of the mostly indigenous people. But that would mean the destruction of many of the groups, Chinese and indigenous, that prospered under President Suharto.

None of the main party leaders is offering detailed economic proposals. Few may appreciate the extent of the problems to be faced. The economy may be bottoming out, but the debt burden will hobble all governments for years to come – not a bright prospect for Indonesian democracy.

The run-up to the election reveals a society developing its political system under intense economic pressure. Despite the recession, most politicians have an international outlook, and have a stake in ensuring that the economic and social gains under Mr. Suharto are not erased by political turmoil.

Indonesia is trying to progress to the point where unity is fostered by participation, not authoritarianism. Weak consensus government would be a problem, but a lesser problem than the violent divides so often forecast for the post-Suharto era.