Amy Chew, Jakarta – Indonesia's spiralling violence, fuelled by a brutal economic recession and religious and ethnic tension, threatens to derail the country's first democratic election in more than 40 years.
Politicians and analysts said that if the violence is not brought under control by the time campaigning starts in late May, there was a possibility of the June 7 general election being delayed or cancelled.
"This is a concern of not just my party but also other political parties and many pro-reform groups," Faisal Basri, secretary-general of the National Mandate Party (PAN) told Reuters.
PAN, headed by popular Moslem leader Amien Rais, is expected to take a substantial chunk of the votes in June, which will be only the second democratic elections in Indonesia's history.
Basri said even if the election was not delayed, continued violence would disrupt campaigning.
"The people are scared of the military and psychologically, their sheer presence [to counter the violence] will scare them without the soldiers having to do or say anything," he said.
The elections mark a political watershed in Indonesia which has recently emerged from 32 years under the autocratic rule of then President Suharto, who was ousted last May amid economic and political crisis.
Investors have largely shunned Indonesia, waiting to see if the June election would bring in a period of stability to the world's fourth most populous nation. Any delay would be certain to further damage Indonesia's hopes of economic and political recovery.
"Elections can be delayed if the situation is not stable. But there is still time to resolve this. The time limit for this is May 20," said Indria Samego, a political analyst of the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), referring to the date on which election campaigns will start.
The country's stricken economy has sent millions into abject poverty, spawning unrest across much of the archipelago, killing hundreds, possibly thousands.
This year more than 200 people have been killed in fighting between Christians and Moslems in the spice island of Ambon. And in the past week over a 100 more have died in ethnic clashes in the Indonesian part of Borneo.
There have been accusations that much of the violence has been orchestrated and some have pointed to supporters of former President Suharto.
Munir of the Legal Aid Institute said that as long as the violence does not spread to the main island of Java and its giant neighbour Sumatra, the impact of the current unrest should not be enough to derail the elections.
"What happens in Java and Sumatra is the decisive factor in deciding whether the election proceeds or not, as 70 percent of the voters live on these two islands," he said.