Rowan Callick, Hong Kong – The East Timorese independence movement is prepared to see the United Nations-supervised referendum, scheduled for later this year, postponed if militias in the territory are not disarmed, and if the 20,000-strong Indonesian military deployment is not substantially reduced.
Otherwise, said Mr Jose Ramos-Horta, special representative of the pro-independence National Council of Maubere Resistance, in Hong Kong yesterday: "if we push ahead, bloodshed is almost certain".
He said that if the referendum does go ahead, and then favours independence, the council proposes a three to five-year transition period under UN administration to allow institution and infrastructure building before formal nationhood.
Mr Ramos-Horta said only Timorese should be permitted to vote in the independence referendum, "but Indonesians would be welcome to stay if they wished".
He said an independent East Timor would seek membership of the South Pacific Forum, and later ASEAN. Mr Ramos-Horta said that he and independence leader Mr Xanana Gusmao did not favour the establishment of a war crimes tribunal, or a South Africa-style truth and reconciliation commission "because those truly responsible will be gone, and we will only be trying the small fish".
While in Hong Kong, Mr Ramos-Horta visited wealthy philanthropist Mr Eric Hotung, who has offered to act as a financial adviser to East Timor.
Mr Ramos-Horta said an independent East Timor would look to the Northern Territory as a "strategic partner", and that size was not a determinant of economic viability.
"Look at Fiji, it is similar in land and population size, and is far from trading routes," he said. "And look also at some of the world's largest countries – such as Russia and Nigeria. And is Indonesia really a model?" Mr Ramos-Horta said that Singapore, "for which I have great admiration", was a model. He compared Mr Gusmao with Mr Lee Kuan Yew. "Xanana might not appreciate the comparison – but Singapore had no resources, no minerals, after its detachment from the Malayan federation. But it had creativity and resilience, and invested in its own people." He said he would continue to judge the Indonesian administration "by its actions on the ground, not by its speeches to the UN".
"There are dark forces at play in Indonesia which are not interested in democratic reforms or the rule of law," he said.
"The Soeharto clique has a political agenda, and money, and the capacity to undermine the process underway in East Timor." Mr Ramos-Horta blamed the military command in the province for providing weapons to the militias, insisting East Timor stay within Indonesia.
He said that the independence movement had "enough manpower to neutralise the paramilitary groups if ever we want to".
"But it is under instructions: no provocations. Indonesia now has the chance to disengage with honour. But this continuing destabilisation is soiling the name of their republic."