Jeremy Wagstaff, Jakarta – In his first Independence Day speech as president, B.J. Habibie used words and gestures to formally break with the authoritarian regime of his predecessor and paint his vision of a new democratic era. But while his marathon address won modest applause, Mr. Habibie is a long way from winning over the skeptics.

At the heart of concerns is the belief that, after nearly 100 days in the job, the president isn't up to rescuing a moribund economy and the confidence of the country's ethnic Chinese. "Some people said it was a very good speech, and it reflects Habibie's skills, but can he implement it? I don't think he has enough power," said Arbi Sanit, a political science lecturer at University of Indonesia.

Underlining the lack of confidence, members of the ethnic-Chinese minority have fled in droves from Jakarta and other major cities after rumors of impending unrest this weekend. In May, gangs of youths swept through neighborhoods of ethnic Chinese, looting, burning and reportedly raping as they went. Some blamed ethnic-Chinese business owners for the country's economic ills.

In the northern Jakarta suburb of Pluit, mainly ethnic-Chinese neighborhoods were quiet and tense on Sunday, newly erected fences and gates guarded by security guards at the entrance to most side streets. "Residents are worried they will become a target. There's a lack of confidence in the government," said Tjia Tek Ijoe, a factory owner and the local neighborhood coordinator. He said he didn't expect riots Monday, Indonesia's National Day holiday, but was taking no chances. "We are ready," he said.

In his Saturday speech, Mr. Habibie tried to assuage such concerns, as well as doubts about his own democratic credentials. Not once mentioning his predecessor and former protector Suharto by name, he outlined the period since Indonesia's declared independence in 1945, describing how outdated security concerns of the Suharto presidency led to its collapse and the beginning of what he called the "Democratic Resurgence Era."

Road to 'civil society'

Apologizing for human rights violations of the past, Mr. Habibie outlined his blueprint for a "civil society" and a more suitable role for the traditionally powerful military. He said the country's laws must be overhauled to create order and a just society. He also hinted that the police, tarnished for their role in the shooting of four university students in May, could be separated from the armed forces. "It's clear he was trying to put some space between himself and Suharto, and give the lie to the belief that he is more of the same," said one Western diplomat of Mr. Habibie's speech.

Mr. Habibie's delivery also reflected the sharp contrast in styles between the two presidents. Much of it appeared deliberate. While Mr. Suharto rarely spoke for more than an hour, Mr. Habibie spoke for just under two. While Mr. Suharto always spoke quietly and solemnly, Mr. Habibie spoke dramatically. He drew laughter from the audience when he asked their permission to take a drink; Mr. Suharto rarely drank before finishing his speech and never cracked jokes. As he left the House of Representatives afterward, the president glad-handed members, a stark departure from Mr. Suharto's stiff formality.

Shadows of the past

To be sure, question marks hang over the substance of Mr. Habibie's commitment to a future free of corruption and nepotism. On Friday, he included his wife and brother Junus among nearly 40 recipients of national medals issued to coincide with National Day. Umar Juoro, executive secretary of the Institute for National Development Studies, said that while legal, the awards looked like "nepotism as usual."

Others fear Mr. Habibie isn't politically strong enough to carry through his political promises. Analysts said that he remains dependent on the support of a military itself weakened by public resentment at its failure to prevent rioting in May. Furthermore, while trying to win over those calling for a rapid shift from the authoritarian politics of the past to democracy, he also appears keen not to alienate his Muslim supporters who would like to see a greater role for Islam in the country. "It's a balancing act, and it's not clear he's really keeping things steady," said one Indonesian intellectual.

Economically, Mr. Habibie's speech spelled out little that was new. He stressed reforming financial institutions, resolving private-sector debt, eliminating monopolies and freeing business from corruption. But beyond warning of the continued need for high interest rates until "inflation can be reduced, and money reverting to banks," there was little to convince economists Mr. Habibie was setting priorities.

He stands accused of making populist gestures at a time when key sectors of the economy need a firm hand. Analysts looking at his speech said it isn't clear how the president is going to continue subsidizing prices of basic commodities while also pumping money into the banking system – some 146 trillion rupiah (US$11 billion) at the last count.

"Concerns are mainly about the economy. Besides the IMF money what can he claim to have done? Life is getting very, very difficult for ordinary Indonesians," said Mr. Juoro. The International Monetary Fund in July agreed to provide an extra $6 billion in funding in addition to a $43 billion IMF-led bailout package assembled late last year.

[On August 15, Antara reported that Habibie has told the Supreme Advisory Council that he will complete his five-year presidential term - James Balowski.]