Ong Hock Chuan, Jakarta – With a ruling party victory a foregone conclusion in Indonesia's May 29 general election and President Suharto almost certain to stand for another term, speculation in Jakarta has focused on who will be the next vice-president and likely presidential successor.

"It's the only game in town for the Indonesian press who feel that political news is the most saleable commodity in the Indonesian market," said a political analyst.

"With the only semblance of opposition in the Indonesian Democratic Party neutralized [by the engineered ouster of Megawati Sukarnoputri from the leadership position] and with Suharto almost certain to stand for a seventh term as president, virtually the only issue they can go on is who would be in the best position to succeed him," the political analyst said.

The speculation has become particularly intense because of the president's age. Suharto, 75, has ruled the world's most populous Muslim nation for 30 years. But the key question of finding a political successor remains unanswered.

Two incidents last year reminded Indonesians of Suharto's mortality - the death of his wife, Tien, and a sudden departure to Germany for a health check which left the local bourse with palpitations.

Two incidents in the past weeks have added further fuel to the speculative fire. The first was the 70th birthday celebration of former vice-president Sudharmono.

Largely out of the limelight in recent years, Sudharmono captured headlines when he marked his birthday by launching an autobiography and an accompanying compendium of recollections of himself from friends and associates.

Though not unusual among prominent Indonesians who have reached an advanced age, many political pundits saw it as Sudharmono's opening gambit in a political comeback.

Political rivals certainly have reason to be wary of Sudharmono. A military lawyer by training, he served in the influential position of state secretary between 1983 and 1988. He was also chairman of Golkar, the ruling party.

In 1988, he was appointed vice-president, a post he held until 1993. During his years in power Sudharmono was seen as a reformist and as the head of Golkar he built up the civilian wing of the party on the assumption that if Golkar became more independent and modern, it also would become less dependent on the executive and the military.

These moves attracted opposition from the Armed Forces which were then headed by the powerful General L B "Benny" Murdani.

In 1988, ABRI, the Indonesian acronym for the Armed Forces, shunted Sudharmono aside within Golkar and ensured he was not renominated in 1993.

But Sudharmono remained influential. During his years in power he cultivated a following among government officials, some of whom are still in the Cabinet.

They all turned up for Sudhormono's 70th birthday bash. And so did his erstwhile arch-rival Murdani, which sparked even more talk of a comeback. Sudharmono of course has denied any such plans.

The other incident that fanned the flames of speculation was a statement by Suparman Achmad, the head of the ABRI faction in the House of Representatives.

Suparman told reporters that ABRI had already decided who it would nominate as vice-president and would announce its choice next year at the opening session of the People's Consultative Assembly. Much interest has focused on the 1,000-member electoral college which will choose the president and vice-president for a five-year term when it meets in March 1998.

So far the names most often mentioned were Vice-President Try Sutrisno, State Secretary Murdiono, Research and Technology Minister B J Habibie, Investment Coordinating Board head Ginandjar Kartasmita, Coordinating Minister for Political Affairs and Security Susilo Sudarman, and Army Chief Hartono.

Political analysts warn against making too much of these speculations. "The real message to come from these speculations is that there is a vacuum of real politicking going on in Indonesia," one analyst said.

"The speculations are only filling the void, for want of something better. When it comes to appointing the vice-president, only one man, Suharto, knows who it will be - but like always he is playing his cards close to his chest."