S. N. Vasuki - Though Indonesia's parliamentary elections are five months away, major political groupings have already launched an aggressive unofficial campaign. Predictably, the country's political temperature has risen in recent weeks as parties battle for the hearts and minds of the electorate.

To be sure, the outcome of the May 29 election is a foregone conclusion. While the ruling Golkar grouping is expected to win up to 70 per cent of the national vote, it is not taking any chances. The opposition United Development Party (PPP) and the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) will share the balance.

Information Minister Harmoko, who is also Golkar chairman, has been visiting small towns in West Java. A major theme of his speeches has been the government's success in alleviating poverty. Though Mr Harmoko's visit was in his capacity as Information Minister, local media have reported that thousands of people attending his meetings wore yellow jackets, the official colour of Golkar.

However, the two opposition parties are not exactly allowing Golkar to walk away with the campaign. The PPP has been involved in a colourful controversy in Solo, Central Java, where party workers last week literally painted the town white. PPP functionaries applied white paint to pavements, trees and electric pillars that were hitherto adorned in the Golkar's official yellow. Solo's local administration officials are not impressed and are threatening to sue the PPP unless the party restores the city to yellow. This has ignited further controversy.

Meanwhile, things are brewing at the Indonesian Democratic Party, a party widely believed to be in disarray after the ouster of Megawati Sukarnoputri last year. Ms Megawati's supporters have taken to the streets in recent days demanding that the government accept her list of candidates for the elections. She has set stiff conditions for her return to the PDI-fold which includes reinstatement as party chief.

Despite the aggressive stance by the two opposition parties, political analysts feel they have slim chances of increasing their share of the national vote. The PPP, which draws its support from Islamic groups, has seen its popularity decline in recent years due to strong inroads made by Golkar in consolidating the Muslim vote. And the PDI, despite Ms Megawati's popularity in urban centres, is riven by factionalism and is hopelessly under-prepared for the crucial elections.

Given this optimistic scenario, why are senior Golkar officials fretting about its electoral prospects?

Political analysts feel their concerns are not misplaced because the electorate, at least in major urban centres, are focusing on bread-and-butter issues like rising living costs, the growing rich-poor divide, and corruption.

This explains why the national budget had a strong "pro-poor" emphasis with increased spending on social welfare programmes. Information Minister Harmoko, in talking about the government's success in poverty alleviation, cited the example of a fish farmer who reaped a record harvest of 1.5 million rupiah (S$887) after receiving state assistance of 400,000 rupiah just five months ago. Another trader received a government loan of 200,000 rupiah to develop his satay business. "I am now able to save 3,000 rupiah every week and my life has shown some improvement," the trader told the Antara news agency.

Such talk must be music to the ears of Golkar. But whether they will add up to a triumphant symphony of votes on May 29 remains to be seen.