Addin Anugrah Siwi, Jakarta – Indonesia's forest and land fires could inflict up to Rp 123.1 trillion ($6.93 billion) in economic and health losses from January to August 2026, an estimate that could rise further if the fires continue spreading through the end of the year, the Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios) said Wednesday.
Under its worst-case scenario, the Rp 123.1 trillion loss is equivalent to 49.1% of Central Kalimantan's projected gross regional domestic product (GRDP) for 2026.
"The Rp 123.1 trillion figure is equivalent to 49.1% of Central Kalimantan's projected GRDP in 2026. What needs to be emphasized is that this figure does not yet account for a scenario in which forest and land fires continue to expand through the end of the year," Celios Economic Director Nailul Huda said on Wednesday.
"This means the actual potential losses could be far greater than what we are presenting today," he added.
Celios estimated that direct economic losses from damaged physical assets and disruptions to economic activity had reached Rp 29.54 trillion, equivalent to around 0.23% of Indonesia's gross domestic product.
The losses affected sectors including trade, agriculture, accommodation, and food and beverage services as haze disrupted production and business activity.
Nailul said Celios based its estimates on an approach developed by Kiely et al. in a 2021 study published in Nature Communications, combined with historical World Bank data on Indonesia's forest and land fire crises in 2015 and 2019.
"Using the approach developed by Kiely et al. (2021) in Nature Communications, combined with the World Bank's historical data on the 2015 and 2019 crises, we estimate total economic losses from damaged physical assets and disrupted economic activity at Rp 29.54 trillion, equivalent to 0.23% of national GDP," Nailul said.
West Kalimantan was estimated to suffer the largest economic losses at Rp 5.7 trillion, followed by West Papua at Rp 4.3 trillion and East Nusa Tenggara at Rp 2.8 trillion.
Beyond the economic damage, Celios also calculated the health costs associated with exposure to haze from the fires.
Under a broader scenario that includes both people diagnosed with acute respiratory infections and those experiencing symptoms, health costs could reach Rp 93.56 trillion, with an estimated 17.4 million people affected. The figure is equivalent to 67.6% of the total health function budget allocated under the 2026 state budget.
Under a narrower scenario covering only people diagnosed with acute respiratory infections by health professionals, Celios estimated that 1.78 million people would be affected, resulting in health costs of around Rp 9.75 trillion.
Of that amount, direct healthcare costs for inpatient and outpatient treatment were estimated at Rp 7.13 trillion, while indirect health-related costs reached Rp 2.63 trillion.
Source: https://jakartaglobe.id/business/forest-and-land-fires-could-inflict-69b-loss-on-indonesia-celio