M. Faiz Zaki, Jakarta – The Director of Public Policy at the Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios) has outlined the consequences of the price hike for non-subsidized Pertamax fuel from Rp12,300 to Rp16,250 per liter, which took effect today, June 10, 2026. This fallout is expected to intensify since the price of subsidized Pertalite remains unchanged at Rp10,000 per liter.

With the excessively steep rise in non-subsidized fuel prices, Celios notes that consumers are now faced with two choices: either buy Pertamax and pay significantly more, or switch to Pertalite. "As a result, the Pertalite quota will increase and cause fuel subsidies to swell," he said in a written statement on Wednesday, June 10, 2026.

Celios believes that limiting purchases through MyPertamina QR codes is only effective if there are no leaks on the ground. However, in practice, a significant volume of Pertalite fuel is still being sold outside of official public gas stations (SPBUs).

Furthermore, Celios considers it erroneous to view Pertamax consumption as a habit of only the wealthy, as the middle class remains highly vulnerable to the impact. Regular users of this fuel include online motorcycle taxi drivers, teachers, and millions of middle-class citizens who prefer Pertamax for their vehicles.

This 32 percent surge in non-subsidized fuel prices, according to Celios, will erode the purchasing power of the middle class, swell the ranks of the vulnerable poor, and drive up food prices. Additionally, the spike in gasoline prices is expected to accelerate loan interest rate adjustments, leading to a surge in layoffs by the third quarter, as well as an uptick in crime rates and social unrest.

To prevent this cascading impact from the non-subsidized fuel hike, Celios urges the government to immediately halt the free nutritious meal program (MBG). However, this option may prove difficult to implement because contracts with kitchen managers are already active and rent structures have been established. "If the MBG is overhauled to target only those strictly in need, the cost would drop to just Rp117 trillion," Celios noted.

Celios Executive Director Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara stated that the Pertamax price hike proves the state's fiscal space, or the State Budget, is narrowing. Maturing debts and interest obligations totaling Rp1.434 trillion this year represent one of the peaks of the nation's debt payments.

"The shortfall in the tax revenue outlook is estimated at Rp300 to 340 trillion, while the need for the programs remains massive," Bhima said.

In addition to fiscal space, Bhima noted that the 8 percent decline of the rupiah since the beginning of this year is exerting double pressure on both state energy spending and public expenditures. With the rupiah crossing 18,000 per US dollar, the cost of oil imports has become far more expensive, squeezing compensation and energy subsidy budgets.

According to Bhima, sensitivity simulations regarding changes in the macroeconomic assumptions of the 2026 State Budget clearly illustrate how a failure to control the exchange rate translates into a Rp91.5 trillion surge in state spending. "This includes the heavier burden of compensation paid out to Pertamina," he said.E1

Celios believes the government has four options to manage fiscal deficit pressures: halt or overhaul the MBG, take on more debt, raise taxes, or raise fuel prices. However, increasing debt is becoming increasingly difficult as the country's borrowing costs climb, while the government has already issued additional tax regulations targeting the micro, small, and medium enterprise (MSMEs) sector.

Pertamina Patra Niaga Corporate Secretary Roberth M.V. Dumatubun previously stated that the adjustment of non-subsidized fuel prices followed all applicable regulations. This step is part of energy governance implementation aimed at maintaining a balance between business sustainability, service quality, and energy supply certainty for the public. "The adjustment of Pertamax and Pertamax Green prices was enacted after a thorough evaluation process based on the government-set price formula," he said.

Alongside Pertamax, Pertamina has raised the price of Pertamax Green from Rp12,900 per liter to Rp17,000 per liter. Meanwhile, prices for other products remain unchanged, including subsidized fuels like Pertalite at Rp10,000 per liter and Biosolar at Rp6,800 per liter.

Source: https://en.tempo.co/read/2107763/celios-warns-of-fallout-from-pertamax-price-hik