Stania Puspawardhani, Jakarta – Mr Oksand, a corporate manager from Bogor, West Java, will not be flying back to his family's home town in Payakumbuh, West Sumatra, for Hari Raya Aidilfitri, which is expected to fall on March 31 in 2025.
"Ticket prices had surged to double, and they keep going up as Hari Raya approaches," he lamented.
Mr Oksand, who, like many Indonesians, goes by one name, told The Straits Times that the normal price for a direct flight from Jakarta to Padang, the capital of West Sumatra, was 1.2 million rupiah (S$103).
However, since the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan began on March 1, prices have more than doubled to three million rupiah. When school holidays started on March 21, the price soared to six million rupiah.
"It's ridiculous," Mr Oksand complained. "I'd better save my money for my children's school tuition."
The 40-year-old has two children in elementary school.
Mr Oksand and his family are among the many Indonesians who have decided not to travel home to celebrate Hari Raya – an annual migration known as "mudik", or exodus, in the Muslim-majority country.
Millions of others have been forced to cancel their plans due to an economic slowdown amid mass layoffs due to factory closures and deflation.
At a March 10 press conference, Minister for Transportation Dudy Purwagandhi that the number of "pemudik", or homecoming travellers, was expected to be 24 per cent lower in 2025 – at 146.48 million – than the 193.6 million people who travelled to their home towns in 2024.
This was according to a survey conducted by the Transportation Policy Agency, a planning body under the Ministry of Transportation, with Kompas newspaper's Research and Development Unit, in mid-February 2025.
The fall in the number of travellers spells more bad news for the economy, given that Hari Raya migration in previous years was a major driver of consumption in Indonesia.
Household consumption is the main contributor to the country's economic growth.
"Household consumption contributed 54.04 per cent (to the national economy) in 2024, and it grew 4.94 per cent cumulatively," said the acting head of Statistics Indonesia, Dr Amalia Adininggar, at a press conference on Feb 5.
Consumption during the Ramadan period amounted to only US$73 billion (S$97.7 billion) in 2025, according to an estimate by consultancy firm Red Strategy Consultants.
While this translated to 5 per cent to 7 per cent growth in consumption, it was nevertheless a slowdown from the 9 per cent to 12 per cent acceleration recorded in 2023 and 2024.
Economic researcher Yusuf Rendy Manilet from the Centre of Reform on Economics (Core Indonesia), said there are already strong indications that people are curbing their spending.
"These adjustments may also be caused by a general decline in purchasing power due to fundamental factors that have already occurred, both this year and as a continuation from last year," he said, referring to slowing economic growth and deflationary pressures, coupled with a widening fiscal deficit and government policies perceived as unfriendly to the market.
Mr Manilet highlighted the Mandiri Spending Index – a gauge that measures consumption sentiment – which showed that Indonesians' spending on non-essential activities such as recreation, sports and entertainment decreased by 1.2 per cent in February.
The decline came even as their expenditure on basic necessities increased by 0.9 per cent.
"This (changing consumption pattern) indicates that people don't have enough revenue to spend outside their basic primary needs," he said.
Pertinently, the rising expenditure on essential items came despite a 0.09 per cent year-on-year decline in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February.
This was the first instance of deflation recorded since March 2000. Deflation has a negative impact on the economy, as it is indicative of decreased spending due to lower demand, and also curtails investment and reduces economic growth.
Dr Adninggar said the deflation was not driven by weaker purchasing power, but rather by a 50 per cent discount on electricity tariffs in January and February.
However, Mr Manilet pointed out that the cost of food and beverages had also come down, as per the CPI data.
"So, while the decline in consumer prices may be partly due to government measures (such as electricity discounts), it also indicates sluggish demand," said Mr Manilet.
In particular, a wave of industrial layoffs that has rendered thousands jobless has impaired Indonesians' purchasing power greatly, he said.
According to a statement on March 15 from the Indonesian Trade Union Confederation, about 60,000 workers from 50 companies lost their jobs in January and February.
Said Mr Manilet: "So people are essentially dipping into their savings to consume basic needs because they do not have earnings any more, or their revenue is not sufficient to buy things outside their primary needs."
The government has rolled out a number of measures to encourage consumption during Ramadan.
This includes special discounts aimed at lowering the cost of flight tickets and fees at toll booths, as well as shopping rebates and measures to stabilise food prices.
Mr Wildan Setiabudi, 45, reached his home town in Yogyakarta this week. The environmental engineer had planned the trip several months in advance for his family of four. Although he did not find much benefit to the government's discounted tickets, he still went ahead with his homecoming travels.
"My wife and I allocated a budget for this year's travel, long before Ramadan arrived," Mr Setiabudi told ST.
The government has also announced 50 trillion rupiah in religious allowances for its three million civil servants.
Separately, the Ministry of Labour on March 11 sent an advisory letter to governors and directors of online-based transportation companies regarding religious holiday bonuses for about four million motorcycle riders working in Indonesia's gig economy.
Typically, these riders are considered "freelance partners" and are therefore not entitled to bonuses like regular employees.
The ministry recommended a cash bonus equivalent to 20 per cent of the riders' average net monthly income over the past 12 months.
In response, two of the largest online-based transportation companies, Gojek and Grab, have provided religious holiday bonuses to their rider partners, subject to certain terms and conditions.
At the press conference in Jakarta on March 10 – held after a coordination meeting between various public agencies to make arrangements for Indonesians heading home for Hari Raya – Transport Minister Dudy said that nearly a quarter of the trips (23 per cent) would be made using private cars.
Buses make up 16.9 per cent, trains 16.1 per cent, planes 13.5 per cent and motorcycles 8.7 per cent.
The government has also provided free homecoming travel via navy warships from Tanjung Priok port to Semarang and Surabaya, reportedly transferring around 2,000 passengers on March 27.
The Yogyakarta province has predicted that the most number of travellers would be returning home to Central Java, followed by East Java, West Java and Yogyakarta.
The number of travellers is expected to peak on March 28, three days before Hari Raya.
[Stania Puspawardhani is Indonesia correspondent for The Straits Times, based in Jakarta.]