Tenggara Strategics, Jakarta – Prabowo Subianto's inauguration as the eighth president of Indonesia is scheduled to take place on Oct. 20, when he is also slated to introduce his cabinet. Given that the president-elect has been building a big-tent coalition government, the topmost question is whether he plans to distribute cabinet posts to reward his political allies or appoint technocrats to lead ministries during his rule.
Dismissing speculation that Prabowo's Gerindra Party would monopolize the cabinet, Gerindra secretary-general Ahmad Muzani said the president-elect was looking to fill ministerial posts with technocrats who were experts in the relevant fields. While these individuals might be members or potential candidates of a particular party, their expertise and competence would take precedence over their political affiliations, Ahmad said.
Will Prabowo prioritize professionalism or politics in his ministerial appointees? But these are not necessarily mutually exclusive: Recruiting technocrats with party affiliations could be ideal in fulfilling their ministerial duties, leading and governing policies while navigating the ins and outs of national politics. In other words, ministers must be good at not only managing their specific administrative area, but also lobbying and accommodating allies hailing from various parties.
Ibnu Dwi Cahyo, research and communication director at Jakarta-based survey and research platform KedaiKOPI, said it was important for political parties to recommend their most qualified members as ministerial candidates, which would show the public that parties were still capable of producing leaders committed to the country's growth and development.
Prior administrations have formed cabinets almost equally split between technocrats and politicians. President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo's 2014-2019 cabinet, including multiple reshuffles, had 52 ministers composed of 29 technocrats with the remainder politicians, for example.
During Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's 10-year presidency, the cabinet of his first term consisted of 43 ministers and his second cabinet 51 ministers, with politicians taking up 49 percent. Megawati Soekarnoputri installed 17 nonpartisans and 15 politicians as ministers during her brief term in 2001-2003, when she took over following the impeachment and removal of Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid.
A technocrat-dominated cabinet was the standard during Sukarno's presidency in the 1950s, but this flipped Soeharto's 32-year rule through 1998, when most ministers were politicians. After BJ Habibie was elevated to the presidency, he installed 27 technocrats and nine politicians in the cabinet during his transitional rule until the 1999 elections.
Throughout modern history, cabinet size has also varied from one administration to another. While Jokowi slimmed down his cabinet to 34 ministries over his two-term presidency, Prabowo reportedly plans to increase his to at least 44 ministries by forming new ministries while splitting existing ones, but with a narrower scope for each to improve efficiency.
Whether ministry or agency, among the new institutions is likely to be one tasked with implementing Prabowo's flagship free nutritious meal program, which aims to addressing childhood malnutrition, as well as others in charge of food, nutrition and human development, food security, the digital economy, energy, investments and the environment.
Ministries that are reportedly targeted for splitting up include the Public Works and Housing Ministry and the Tourism and Creative Economy Ministry to form four separate ministries. It also seems likely that Prabowo will be reinstating the Research and Technology Ministry, after Jokowi merged it with the Education and Culture Ministry in 2021 to strengthen the emerging digital sector. Further, Prabowo could split the Education and Culture Ministry into two separate institutions.
Whatever the final structure, a bloated cabinet is sure to increase the state budget significantly at a time when the new administration must spend a lot to fulfill Prabowo's campaign promises, while the prolonged global uncertainty is not conducive to accelerated growth for Indonesia.
What we've heard
According to a politician who supports Prabowo, the next cabinet will have more coordinating ministerial posts, such as for infrastructure and law. The source added that Democratic Party chairman Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono is being considered for coordinating infrastructure minister.
A Democrat politician claims that the party is eyeing a high post for their leader to improve their electoral standing. "We deserve this position," said the politician.
The coordinating legal minister post is allegedly to go to Crescent Star Party (PBB) founder Yusril Ihza Mahendra. There are plans for this coordinating minister office to serve as the mentor for a new agency that will handle immigration and correctional institutions, separated from the Law and Human Rights Ministry.
On the other hand, Prabowo is currently in a dilemma concerning the expansion of the number of ministries. Due to the limited state budget, it is feared that increasing the number of cabinet portfolios would constrain the implementation of Prabowo's signature programs. "This concern arose after Prabowo learned that the 2025 state budget was approved," the source said.
Thus, over the next month, Prabowo will carefully select his ministers.