Denny Armandhanu, Jakarta – Indonesian President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) reshuffled his Cabinet on Monday (Aug 19) by replacing two ministers linked with the opposition.
Some critics have however questioned the Cabinet changes as they come just two months before Mr Jokowi steps down in October to make way for his successor, president-elect Prabowo Subianto.
In the reshuffle, Mr Jokowi replaced two ministers linked to the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P): Law and Human Rights Minister Yasonna Laoly and Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Arifin Tasrif.
Mr Andi Agtas from Mr Prabowo's Gerindra party will be the new law and human rights minister, while Investment Minister Bahlil Lahadalia will take over the energy and mineral resources portfolio.
According to media reports, Mr Arifin is not a member of the PDI-P but is widely seen as connected to the party.
Mr Bahlil is widely seen as a Jokowi loyalist who has been instrumental in Mr Prabowo's presidential election campaign in February.
On Monday, Mr Jokowi also appointed Mr Prabowo's campaign manager Rosan Roeslani as the new investment minister to replace Mr Bahlil.
Another member of Mr Prabowo's inner circle Angga Raka Prabowo was appointed by the president as the new deputy communications and information minister. He was the media director of the Prabowo-Gibran National Campaign in the 2024 Presidential Election.
Observers say that while it is the president's prerogative to change his ministers, the Cabinet changes are seen as heavily politically motivated, judging from the new appointees who come from his supporting coalition.
"In the presidential system, the president can reshuffle at any time, even one day before stepping down, it is not a problem," said Dr Ujang Komarudin, a political expert from the University of Al Azhar Indonesia in an interview with CNN Indonesia TV on Monday.
"But the reshuffle this time seems to be (for) a political interest," he saiding, adding that it appears to be aimed at improving Mr Jokowi's bargaining position with the incoming Prabowo government.
Mr Prabowo who is chairman of the Gerindra Party, and his deputy Gibran Rakabuming Raka – Mr Jokowi's eldest son – will be inaugurated on October 20. According to the constitution, Mr Jokowi, who last reshuffled his Cabinet in February, can no longer serve as president because he has already served two terms.
Mr Agung Baskoro, a political analyst at the Trias Politika Strategic research institute, told CNA that those appointed by Mr Jokowi have close personal ties to him.
Mr Agung said the reshuffle was for the benefit of the new governing coalition, so some people who are in the opposition have to be removed.
Despite having been in the Jokowi government since 2014, Mr Yasonna became the most notable minister to be dropped in the latest reshuffle. He is reported to be a PDI-P cadre.
PDI-P backed Mr Jokowi as president, but their ties became frayed after the president endorsed Mr Prabowo as a presidential candidate.
According to Mr Agung, the position of minister of law and human rights is very strategic because it has the authority to legalise political parties and their administrators.
Observers said that Mr Yasonna had angered the Jokowi government after he legalised the PDI-P board of management in early July, without first notifying the president.
"Yasonna legalised the PDI-P board without being authorised by the Palace (Jokowi's government). This is dangerous for the Palace, because if it is filled with people who are critical of the government, it will backfire," Mr Agung told CNA.
Meanwhile, several major Indonesian parties will be holding their general congresses this week, including the Golongan Karya Party (Golkar) on Tuesday, where it is expected to appoint Mr Bahlil as its new chairman. This follows a surprise move by Mr Airlangga Hartarto to step down as its chairman.
Observers had told CNA that Mr Airlangga's resignation is due to pressure from "external forces", namely Mr Jokowi and Mr Prabowo, who want a Golkar party leader who can support them going forward.
Mr Bahlil, who is the former Chairman of the Indonesian Young Entrepreneurs Association, once formed a volunteer business organisation to support the Jokowi-Ma'ruf Amin pair in the 2019 presidential election.
Analysts CNA spoke to said that altogether there will be four major parties that will conduct their internal leadership succession over the next two weeks and these party leadership positions should be held by people who are part of the new government.
However, some also note that the Cabinet reshuffle does not reflect well on the Jokowi government as it seems to be aimed at protecting the president's personal interests.
"(The Cabinet reshuffle) has nothing to do with the interests of the nation and state," said political analyst Ray Rangkuti of the Jakarta-based think tank Lingkar Madani, adding that Mr Jokowi wants to protect himself against his political opponents who are waiting for him to step down.
"Jokowi is busy looking for ways to secure himself after he is no longer in power. He wants to have influence in the power environment later, which is what he is doing now," Mr Ray added.
Two months before Jokowi ends term
Observers added that with the reshuffle being carried out just two months before Mr Jokowi ends, the time frame is too short for the ministers involved to be effective in their work.
"This reshuffle is unnecessary. The government should focus on the remaining two months so that achievements and performance are maximised," Mr Agung said.
The Jokowi government said the reshuffle was to help in the power transition.
"(The reshuffle) is needed to prepare and support the transition of government to run well, smoothly and effectively," Presidential Special Staff Coordinator Ari Dwipayana said on Monday, as quoted by Detik.
Mr Agung said there was a possibility that those appointed on Monday would continue to serve in Mr Prabowo's government. "Hopefully, they can be in line with his policies. But if they are replaced again (in the Prabowo government), then this (reshuffle) will be redundant," Mr Agung said.
However, Mr Ray said there was no guarantee that Mr Prabowo would stick with the appointments made by Mr Jokowi after he takes over.
"Prabowo is brave enough, when he disagrees he will openly say it," Mr Ray said.
What will happen to other PDI-P ministers
There are still three PDI-P ministers in Mr Jokowi's cabinet, including the cabinet secretary, but observers suspect that they will not be affected by any further changes, as their positions are not strategic, unlike the minister of law and human rights.
"That is Jokowi's prerogative. But maybe because Yasona had made a fatal mistake, he was replaced. The position of the Ministry of Law and Human Rights is a strategic position and all parties want to hold this position, because all their party affairs including conflicts among each other will have to be resolved through the ministry," Mr Ujang told CNA.
At the same time, keeping several PDI-P ministers in the Cabinet could also be part of Mr Jokowi's strategy. "The goal is that for PDIP to remain half-hearted in opposition, it should not be allowed to disrupt the stability of the government," Mr Ray said.
PDI-P won the legislative elections in February with 16.72 percent of the vote. Following in second and third place were Mr Prabowo's supporting coalition parties, Golkar (15.28 per cent) and Gerindra (13.22 per cent).
PDI-P has not indicated if it will join the ruling coalition or serve as the opposition. PDI-P's position will be determined at the party congress held next year.
The party, chaired by Ms Megawati Soekarnoputri, the daughter of Indonesia's first president Soekarno, has also yet to comment on the reshuffle.
"Will the reaction be drastic, or will they just watch? They could also withdraw all their ministers," Mr Agung said.
Mr Ray added that the changes could also embolden PDI-P to further criticise Mr Jokowi.
"PDI-P will be freer and will no longer have the awkwardness to criticise Jokowi," Mr Ray said.