Monique Handa Shafira, Jakarta – The Capital Sensitivity Analysis (CSA) Index for February 2024 indicates a decline in investors' optimism ahead of the 2024 General Election.
David Sutyanto, the Chairman of the Indonesian Capital Market Analysts Association (AAEI), said the level of investors' optimism in February reached 59.7, a decrease compared to the previous month's 83.7. Despite the decline, the figure remains above 50, indicating a bullish sentiment among investors.
"The level of optimism tends to decrease because people see uncertainties in this election. So far, we don't know who will win, whether it will be in one round or two rounds," said David to Beritasatu.com, a sister publication of the Jakarta Globe, on Monday.
According to David, market participants perceive a high level of uncertainty due to the General Election. If the election concludes in one round, it will be considered a positive outcome, allowing market participants to promptly allocate their assets to adjust to the election results.
However, if it goes into two rounds, the uncertainty will persist until the second round of the election is held. "Investors don't like uncertainty. So, with the absence of certainty, the sentiment will be more negative for them," added David.
In a single-round election, a candidate pair needs to secure more than 50 percent of the total votes, with at least 20 percent of the votes in each province spread across more than half of Indonesia's provinces.
The Permanent Voters List (DPT) for the 2024 Election, as established by the General Election Commission (KPU), includes a staggering 204.81 million eligible voters. To win in a single-round election, one presidential and vice-presidential pair must garner support from 102.5 million voters.
In the event of a two-round election, the KPU would initiate a second campaign period for the two candidates who qualify for the runoff, spanning from June 2 to June 22, 2024. The second round of voting is scheduled for June 26, 2024.
Source: https://jakartaglobe.id/business/investor-optimism-wanes-ahead-of-2024-election-uncertaintie