Dessy Aswim – The credibility and accuracy of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's recent claim to have lifted nine million people out of poverty in the past five years has left some skeptical, with an expert saying the figures cited warrant deeper analysis.
Revrisond Baswir, an economics analyst at Yogyakarta's Gadjah Mada University, said on Thursday that the government employed a two-tiered definition of poverty that distinguished the extremely poor from the moderately poor, and that any claim to lifting people out of poverty could be interpreted as simply taking them from the lower sub-category to the upper one.
"The poverty line drawn by our government is very low," he said. "We have the extremely poor becoming moderately poor, and at any given time it is easy for the moderately poor to go back to square one."
He added that when Yudhoyono claimed success in eradicating poverty, "that doesn't necessarily mean that poverty is out of the context." "Maybe the extremely poor have now become moderately poor, but they're still far from prosperous," Revrisond said.
Speaking on Monday at the opening of the Southeast Asia office of the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Lab (J-PAL) in Jakarta, Yudhoyono noted that the number of Indonesians classified as poor had declined from 16.58 percent in 2007 to 11.66 percent in 2012, and credited his administration's Master Plan for the Acceleration of Expansion and Economic Development in Indonesia (MP3EI) as a key program in eradicating poverty.
Revrisond said it was also possible that the data was skewed by not including poor families who were recipient of various forms of government aid.
The government has embarked on yet another handout program that will see Rp 9.3 trillion ($937 million) distributed to 15.5 million households over the next four months to offset the impact of a recent fuel price hike.
"It's right to make a claim about lifting people out of poverty, because it probably did happen, but it's a pretty short-sighted claim because the poor only stopped being poor for that period [when they were getting handouts]," Revrisond said. "But beyond that, who knows?"
He also played down Yudhoyono's aim to lift another six million people out of poverty in the next five years as an overly ambitious as well as unrealistic plan. He also questioned the poverty-eradication merits of the MP3EI, saying it did little more than impose more dependency on foreign investors.
"More jobs can be created, but that can only happen if we open our doors wide for foreigners. When we factor in Indonesians, it results in Indonesians becoming slaves in their own country. We're a nation of slaves," Revrisond said.
Fachry Ali, a political analyst at the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), argued that Yudhoyono's claim might not be entirely untrue, given the country's stable economic performance since 2006.
"Realistically, there are those living on or near the poverty line, and those living below it. Maybe [the president] was referring to those living below the poverty line," Fachry said.
He also defended the cash handout scheme as an important element in boosting the economy, and said the MP3EI would provide solid growth through major infrastructure projects.
"When the MP3EI is completed, the flow of commodities will be smoother and that will bring down production costs for goods as well as living costs," Fachry said.