Bruce Gale – Political polling in Indonesia, say seasoned observers, has little to do with determining voter preferences. Rather, the surveys conducted by the country's numerous political consultancies focus on promoting the political fortunes of the parties or rich individuals who hire them.
Recently published surveys have certainly come to sharply differing conclusions about the electability of potential presidential candidates for the 2014 elections.
One poll released last month by the Political Weather Station (PWS), for example, showed that former vice-president Jusuf Kalla was the most popular presidential candidate. He was supported by 22.14 percent of respondents. The predicted margin of victory, however, was narrow.
About 20 percent of voters preferred Indonesian Democratic Party Struggle (PDI-P) leader and former president Megawati Soekarnoputri, while another 19.3 percent chose Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) chief patron and former army general Prabowo Subianto.
A survey by the National Survey Institute at about the same time, however, produced a very different result. In this case, Prabowo came out on top, being favored by 20.1 percent of respondents. Trailing well behind was Wiranto, chairman of the People's Conscience Party (Hanura), a potential presidential candidate who did not figure in the PWS survey at all. He garnered support from 12 percent of those polled.
Kalla, who PWS declared the most popular, only got 9.4 percent. Megawati and Golkar party leader Aburizal Bakrie collected 8.8 percent and 7.1 percent, respectively.
With such wildly differing results, can any of these surveys be trusted?
The sample sizes – usually around 1,200 – are generally regarded by commercial survey firms as adequate, producing a margin of error of 2 percent to 3 percent. Most political surveys also draw their respondents from all of the nation's 33 provinces, underlining their claim that the results have truly national significance.
But the fact that the sole source of income of these consultancies comes from politicians and political parties suggests caution. Professional pollsters consulted for this story noted privately that there were many ways to rig a sample so that the results favor one or two particular candidates while still making it appear nationally representative.
The fact that the results of such surveys are used to influence the political process is hardly in doubt. The PWS survey, for example, has been used by the supporters of Kalla to suggest that Golkar might be better off supporting the former vice-president's bid for the presidency rather than that of its party chairman. Bakrie garnered support from only 16.3 percent of respondents in the PWS poll. Kalla and Bakrie have a long history of political rivalry.
So those looking for a more reliable means of measuring national political preferences must look elsewhere. One option is the Monthly Political Monitor produced by commercial pollster Roy Morgan.
This report is based on a series of questions added to regular consumer confidence surveys conducted for local banks, telecommunications companies and consumer goods manufacturers. Using a sample size of at least 2,000 and targeting respondents 16 years and older in 17 provinces, this survey claims to cover about 83 percent of the nation's voters.
With no particular political axe to grind, this poll reveals Prabowo to be the most favored of the current crop of potential presidential candidates. He was supported by 14 percent of respondents, closely followed by Megawati (13 percent), Bakrie (12 percent) and Kalla (9 percent).
State-Owned Enterprise Minister and newspaper tycoon Dahlan Iskan garnered 8 percent of support, and other potential candidates had insignificant support.
Far more important was the number of respondents who said they were undecided – 14 per cent. Based on these results, what sort of alliances are we likely to see in 2014?
Roy Morgan research also shows that despite the recent scandals that have battered his administration, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono remains the most popular politician in the country.
He may therefore have considerable influence over undecided voters. One option to preserve his legacy might be for Yudhoyono to support a Democrat-Golkar alliance, with Bakrie running for the presidency on condition that Yudhoyono's brother-in-law, Army Chief of Staff Pramono Edhie Wibowo, partners him as vice-president.
Both are military men, an occupation that, according to Roy Morgan, most voters prefer in a presidential candidate.
As for the opposition, the most viable coalition would be between Prabowo (Gerindra) and Megawati, or a candidate supported by her PDI-P.
The nation's political elite, however, is far more used to using surveys as a political weapon rather than as an analytical tool. It is therefore far from clear whether the results of independent polling will figure in the political calculations of the major players as the 2014 elections approach.