Ezra Sihite, Ismira Lutfia & Markus Junianto Sihaloho – Retired Army general Prabowo Subianto has topped a list of likely presidential candidates in a recent study by the Soegeng Sarjadi Syndicate, beating former President Megawati Sukarnoputri and former Vice President Jusuf Kalla.
Prabowo got the vote from 25.8 percent of the 2,192 people surveyed in the study, released by SSS on Wednesday, while Megawati got 22.4 percent.
"This shows that people want change, a new leader and a new direction," Fadli Zon, deputy chairman of the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra), which Prabowo co-founded, said on Wednesday. "This boosts our confidence in stepping into the future."
Kalla came in third with 14.9 percent, defeating fellow Golkar Party politician and chairman Aburizal Bakrie, who garnered just 10.6 percent. Golkar is set to nominate Aburizal as its presidential candidate, despite opposition from other Golkar leaders who support Kalla.
Golkar legislator Rully Chairul Azwar, said the party would not reconsider Aburizal's bid, as people's perceptions about the business tycoon could still change.
"The rational voters are still undecided, so this [survey] cannot serve as a benchmark," he said. "[Kalla and Bakrie] have an equal shot. It all comes down to who makes the better preparations to gather public support."
The SSS survey showed media mogul Surya Paloh in a distant fifth place with just 5.3 percent, while retired general Wiranto, chairman of the People's Conscience Party (Hanura), got 4.5 percent.
The survey also found that voters were drawn more toward nationalist parties than religious ones. "Ideology and party platforms are not the dominant factors for choosing parties," SSS survey coordinator Muhammad Dahlan said.
Fifty-six percent of the people surveyed said they would choose nationalists, while religious parties attracted just 11.5 percent of respondents.
The Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), Indonesia's biggest Islam-based party, got only 6.9 percent of the vote, while the other three Islamic-based parties, the National Mandate Party (PAN), the United Development Party (PPP) and the National Awakening Party (PKB), scored less than 3.5 percent each.
Most popular was the nationalist Golkar, which drew 23 percent. The ruling Democratic Party scored 10.7 percent, behind the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) with 19.6 percent.
The survey indicated that only six parties would gain seats at the House of Representatives under the new election law, which requires parties to win 3.5 percent votes for a House seat. The fledgling National Democrat (NasDem) Party was predicted to be one of those meeting the threshold, with 4.8 percent of the vote.
PPP lawmaker Arwani Thomafi questioned the outcome of the study. "We are sure the PPP will get far more votes in 2014 than what the survey suggests," he said.
Political observer and Indonesian Civic Network (LIMA) director Ray Rangkuti said the survey showed that the presidential race was still dominated by "old players." "We need new figures, not the recycled ones," he said. "Old figures should refrain from running for president or vice president in 2014."