Robertus Wardi & Dessy Sagita – Government coalition members are trying to boost their public image and bargaining position over President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Democratic Party in their last-minute rejection of the fuel price hike, political analysts agreed on Friday.
"I don't believe the coalition members think about people. For them, it is only a game of achieving self-interested goals while protesters outside risk their lives," said Yunarto Wijaya, an analyst from political think tank Charta Politica.
While the Democrats pushed the proposal to raise the fuel price by 33 percent from April and three opposition parties – the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) and the People's Conscience Party (Hanura) – firmly rejected it, five other parties in the ruling coalition had their own agenda.
"I respect both Democrats and the opposition who have had clear positions from the beginning. The other coalition members seem like they are only trying to bolster their bargaining power and public image with their last-minute proposals," Yunarto said.
The state budget law prohibits the government from increasing fuels price this year. The 560-seat House of Representatives was this week debating whether to scrap Article 7.6, thereby allowing the hike.
The Democrats, the largest party in the House with 148 seats, wanted it removed and three opposition parties insisted on maintaining it. The five coalition members came up with different proposed amendments.
They used the Indonesian crude price (ICP) assumption in the state budget (set at $105 per barrel) as a basis to propose different conditions for the government to increase prices of subsidized fuels, leading to hours of protracted negotiations that pushed the plenary vote late into the evening.
The price is currently 10 percent above that, at $116 a barrel.
The Golkar Party, the second-largest party with 106 seats, said it would only support a fuel price hike if the ICP rose 15 percent above the budget forecast within the next six months. The Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), with 57 seats, rejected the price hike unless the ICP rose 20 percent above the assumption in the next three months.
The National Awakening Party (PKB), with 28 seats, proposed 17.5 percent while the National Mandate Party (PAN), with 46 seats, wanted 15 percent. The United Development Party (PPP) and its 38 seats insisted on 10 percent.
University of Indonesia political analyst Arbi Sanit, however, said the fuel price would ultimately be increased because the politicians realized that the mounting subsidy would create huge deficit for the budget.
"The politicians only want to show to protesters that they are concerned about their aspirations," he said. "But the protests are not powerful enough to change the government's plan."
Meanwhile, legal expert Yusril Ihza Mahendrac said even if the House failed to clear the way for the government to increase fuel prices, Yudhoyono could get credit by saying that he canceled the plan because he considered the people.