Jakarta – The retail sector is doing better than most, but weakened purchasing power could dampen demand, so 2009 full-year growth in sales could fall below 10 percent, despite double-digit growth since 2003, says a survey.

The Neilsen Company revealed its latest survey on Thursday saying that the global economic downturn was to blame for the forecast lower growth for the industry for 2009, although sales in 2008 were not far short of a staggering Rp 100 trillion (about US$9.8 billion).

"This year is very tough due to weakening demand. Nielsen's most optimistic prediction is that sales will hit as high as 10 percent growth this year," Febby Ramaun, Nielsen Company retail associate director told a media conference.

Between 2003 and 2008, sales generated by the industry have grown annually between 13 and 21 percent per year, with last year's total sales valued at Rp 94.5 trillion, representing the biggest annual growth of the decade at 21 percent.

Nielsen's survey covered the sales of 54 top branded grocery products. In five months this year, sales grew 6.5 percent to Rp 39.8 trillion from the same period last year.

The survey also shows sales growth for traditional stores in the past four years was always below that of modern retailers. Last year, traditional stores sales growth reached 19.6 percent, just lower than overall retail growth of 21.1 percent.

Currently, there are about 12,000 modern retail outlets and 2 million traditional stores. Yet, the modern retailers now account for around 30 percent of the country's retail market share, according to the Nielsen survey.

However, Febby said that the modern retailer's actual market share was probably lower. "Nielsen's survey does not cover cigarette sales and non-branded products sales that are mostly sold in traditional shops," said Febby. (mrs)