Mustaqim Adamrah, Jakarta – While the rise in exports to the US in February compared to January bucked the trend to a slump in overall exports and was encouraging, high-ranking officials insisted that it did not reflect the general trend that the country's economy will experience in the following months.

The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) reported earlier that non-oil and gas exports to the US rose by 3.9 percent to US$802.4 million in February from $772.3 million a month earlier, making the US Indonesia's top export destination, pushing aside Japan, which was top of the list for seven months in a row.

But BPS head Rusman Heriawan said Thursday the month-on-month increase "was insignificant and did not represent the general trend in months to come".

"The US and Japan have always been Indonesia's top two export destinations. Had there been a decline in our exports to the US, that country would have been still among our top two destination countries," he said.

Rusman said the increase might have resulted from previous orders where shipments had been delayed, with exporters catching up now. Indonesia exports mainly footwear, textiles and garments and relatively simple electronic devices and consumer goods to the US.

Echoing Rusman, Indonesian Employers Association (Apindo) chairman Sofjan Wanandi said he believed the increase did not signal a turning point or recovery in global trade demand, but rather represented "deliveries of orders that had been placed months before".

Singgih Witarso, Indonesian Footwear Association (Aprisindo) secretary-general, also concurred, saying that the increase was because US buyers had asked Indonesian manufacturers to delay deliveries for their current orders for months, "even until June".

"Their orders should have been delivered last November, or December, but were delayed because buyers had requested postponement, while they were still selling off their stocks."

However he also confirmed that local footwear manufacturers had secured orders amounting to "hundreds of millions of dollars" from the US for "high-class, formal" shoes until the end of the 2009.

Footwear exports hit almost $1.89 billion last year, with 25 percent of this volume going to the US. Rusman forecast that in general, total exports to the US will decline until the year-end, already showing a 22.5 percent drop to $1.6 billion in the first two months this year, compared to the $2 billion booked in the corresponding period last year.

Globally, Indonesia's non-oil and gas exports declined by 2.4 percent to $6 billion in February this year from $6.2 billion in the earlier month and dropped 26 percent from the same month in 2008.

The BPS' data shows that total exports stood at $7.08 billion in February this year, a 1 percent drop from $7.15 billion in the previous month, or a 33 percent fall from last year's February.

Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin) has forecast exports would fall by 30 percent in the first quarter this year and could even drop by 50 percent in the second quarter.