Abdul Khalik, Jakarta – A weak and corrupt government, rather than a lower defense budget, will one day lure the military back into politics, Defense Minister Juwono Sudarsono says.
After speaking at the launch of the Institute of Defense and Security Studies (Iodas) here Monday, Juwono expressed optimism that the lower defense budget would not affect soldiers' commitment to civilian supremacy.
"In the last 10 years, TNI has been accustomed to budgeting far below its minimum needs, while all characteristics of fighting soldiers, people's soldiers and professional soldiers have blended together inside our military," he said.
But he warned that if the present condition of divided, weak and corrupt civilians continued, nobody knew what the military would do.
"I always say that if people want to help me foster democracy within the Defense Ministry then civil society and especially those in the House of Representatives must unite and consolidate civil society," he said.
The government has proposed a lower defense budget of Rp 35 trillion in 2009, down from Rp 36 trillion in 2008. Earlier, a law was passed to allow the state to take over military businesses, claimed by some to be sources of alternative funding for TNI activities that would otherwise compensate for the TNI's decreasing share of the state budget.
According to Iodas' analysis, the lower budget and the business takeovers have deprived the military of authority, creating the conditions necessary for the military to jump back into politics.
Iodas, made up of defense and security experts who previously worked with the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) – such as Edy Prasetyono, Bantarto Bandoro and Kusnanto Anggoro – said the budget gap between what was needed and what was provided had reached Rp 105 trillion.
Iodas' director Andi Widjajanto pointed out that the TNI was a military accustomed to politics in the past, and hence, would only wait for the right moment to act – such when they perceived civilian politicians were too weak to govern.
The current civilian government, Andi said, has been seen by the military as weak and corrupt.
"You see, almost no government offices are free from corruption. In fact, the military considers itself the least corrupt institution.
"A combination of disappointment with the limited budget and power plus perception of civilian inability will invite the military to take over power from civilians just like in Thailand and other countries," he said.
Already in the first semester of this year, the Corruption Eradication Commission has arrested seven lawmakers, Bank Indonesia top officials, prosecutors and central and local government officials for alleged graft.
"So, the question is when, rather than why. When both timing and motive collide, we will see the military intervene into politics," Andi said.
Edy, Iodas' vice executive director, said the establishment of the institute was to provide the public and government with an understanding of the nature of defense and the military to avoid a condition that could lead to a military coup.