East Timor's maverick seemed desperate for martyrdom

Fabio Scarpello in Banda Aceh – When Alfredo Reinado died in a hail of gunfire outside the home of President Jose Ramos Horta yesterday, he was fulfilling a dream to either seize control of East Timor, or to go down in a blaze of glory trying.

But it is unclear whether the rebel soldier's legacy will be further instability or a new hope for peace for the fledgling Southeast Asian country.

Reinado, 40, was killed as he led an attack that seriously wounded Mr Ramos Horta. Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao was also targeted in a co-ordinated attack, but the former resistance leader escaped unscathed.

Damien Kingsbury, an Australian expert on East Timor, said Reinado was apparently responding to his belief that negotiations with the government had failed and that he would be captured after his support base was dismantled. "It was a desperate attempt by him to stage a coup, although a crazy idea," he said.

A Dili-based analyst, who asked not to be named, agreed Reinado – who once had ties with Mr Ramos Horta and Mr Gusmao – had burned all his bridges and acted out of desperation. "He had boxed himself into a corner and was perhaps delusional," he said, adding: "My first impression is that he sought martyrdom."

Reinado was to go on trial in absentia next month for his alleged role in several deadly shootings between police and military units during violence in 2006, which led to the collapse of the government. He was briefly arrested but broke out of jail later the same year and had since evaded capture.

Despite the outstanding murder charges, Mr Ramos Horta had met Reinado on several occasions since last year in attempts to persuade him to surrender. Reinado initially said he supported Mr Ramos Horta's election in May 2007, but in recent months he had become increasingly critical of the president and prime minister.

Little was heard recently of the rebels, but a United Nations police patrol that stumbled across a group of the men last week was met with warning shots, and left without firing in response.

The isolation seemed to weigh heavily on Reinado, who appeared uneasy and stressed in his latest interviews. He had also said he feared for his life. "I know a lot about all the politicians and I know that the best solution for them would be to kill me, so that they could blame the crisis on me," he said recently.

Reinado was believed to have had the support of a large swathe of the population from the western part of the country, but it is unclear whether that will translate into violent action now. There were no reports of violence as of last night.

Mr Kingsbury said he believed the country's security apparatus and the Australian and New Zealand troops that form the International Stabilisation Force (ISF) would manage to weather the storm. "Gusmao will assume executive authority until this settles, and the ISF will control the streets until things start to clear," he predicted.

Fellow Australian academic and East Timor expert Norman Day, however, argued that the latest crisis would be very destabilising and that Reinado's followers would opt for violent retaliation. "It's going to be bad within 24 to 36 hours," Mr Day said.

Maria do Ceu Federer, a Timorese activist, predicted a period of deep uncertainty. "When big problems like Reinado, the petitioners [Reinado's followers] and the internally displaced remain unsolved after two years, anything can happen," she said. "It goes back to the anger fuelled by the lack of justice that East Timorese have had to endure throughout their history."

George Quinn, an East Timor specialist from the Australian National University, said Reinado's removal would be a "very good thing" for East Timor. "One doesn't like to speak ill of the dead [but] he was a maverick and a spoiler and he was definitely bad news for the development of stability in East Timor," Mr Quinn said.

Former Australian foreign minister Alexander Downer echoed the same sentiment to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. "I've always thought that Major Reinado was a pretty dangerous person, very unstable, [but he] has only had a small amount of support in East Timor. Not to wish anyone their death, but the fact he is off the scene altogether will be a good thing for the stability of East Timor."